• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가격 예측

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A Study on the Price Fluctuation and Forecasting of Aquacultural Flatfish in Korea (양식 넙치의 가격변동 및 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ock, Young-Soo;Kim, Sang-Tae;Ko, Bong-Hyun
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.41-62
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    • 2007
  • The Fish aquacultural Industry has been developed rapidly since 1990s in Korea. The total production of fish aquaculture was 5,000ton in the beginning of 1990s, but it was an excess of 80,000ton in 2005. In the beginning of 1990s, the percentage of flatfish yield was 80% of the fish aquaculture in the respect of production. And it has been maintained 50% level in 2005. In this point of view, flatfish aquaculture played the role of leader in the development of fish aquaculture. Rapid increasing of production was not only caused to decreasing in price basically, but also it threatened the management of producer into insecure price for aquacultural flatfish. Therefore, it needs the policy for stabilizing in price, but it is difficult to choose the method because the basic study was not accomplished plentifully. This study analyzed about price structure of aquacultural flatfish. A period of analysis was from January 2000 to December 2005, and a data was used monthly data for price. The principal result of this study is substantially as follows. 1) The price of producing and consuming district is closely connected. 2) A gap between producing district price and consuming district price is decreasing recently, It seems to be correlated with outlook business of aquacultural flatfish. 3) Trend line of the price was declining until 2002, but it turned up after that. The other side, circulated fluctuation was being showed typically. 4) The circle of circulated fluctuation was growing longer, so it seems that the producer was doing a sensible productive activity to cope with changing price. As a result, government's policy needs to be turned into price policy from policy of increased production for aquacultural flatfish. It seems that the best policy is price stabilization polices. And also, government needs to invest in outlook business for aquaculture constantly.

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The Survey for Successful Operation of the BTL Projects (BTL사업의 성공적 수행을 위한 설문조사 연구)

  • Ahn, Yong-Sun;Shim, Un-Jun;Jang, Gang-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2011
  • The capital of investment of SOC projects is too large to be taken charge of a country. The government introduces the private investment like a BTL project because of the limited national resources. However, even the company which wants order constructions, do not consider the fundamentals such as accurate estimation, capability of construction company and construction period. The purpose of the research is to suggest the basic influential factors for obtaining a BTL project and offers the concludes for the successful operation after the contract. The result of the research is followed. 54 effect successful factors are compressed into 11 principle factors by analysis on those 54 factors, CSFs of BTL business are constructed. Regression analysis is induced by variable of primary success factors and success degree, and derives the influence degree of effect successful factors in business. Regression analysis that is mentioned above showed considerable issues from importance of primary factors, prime cost fluctuation factors and comparison of management-level. So this study could suggest the effective operate plan of BTL business.

Estimating Profitability of Private Finance Investment Using Real Option : Quantifying Value of Overturn Share Ratio and Minimum Revenue Guarantee (실물옵션에 의한 민간투자사업 사업타당성 평가 : 초과수익분배비율 및 최소수입보장비율 가치 정량화)

  • Jung, Woo-Yong;Koo, Bon-Sang;Han, Seung-Heon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.606-609
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    • 2008
  • Traditionally, the feasibility of the private investment is determined by NPV(Net Presented Value) based on DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) and the volume of government's subsidiary without quantifying the effect of overturn share ratio and MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee), these variables which can seriously effect on the economic feasibility. One of the most important reasons why these variables are not underestimated is that the quantifying methods are insufficiently or so complicatedly studied to apply practically the real project. Therefore, this study suggests the modified binominal option model to estimate the overturn share ratio and MRG and estimates how much these variables impact the private investment. Also, these results are helpful to estimate how much the government's subsidiary can be reduced.

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Structural Analysis of TPU Membrane Plate in Multi-purpose Module for Solid-liquid Separation (TPU 재질을 적용한 다목적 고액분리 모듈의 여과판 구조해석)

  • Jung, Hee Suk;Oh, Doo Young;Ko, Dong Shin;Song, Hyoung Woon
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.5-13
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    • 2017
  • Polypropylene is the main existing material in the domestic market being used for the filter plate because of its moldability, low cost, and commercial availability. Polypropylene filter plate once distorted due to the high-pressure during operation may cause the problem in the continuous operation of the solid-liquid separation module. Thermoplastic Poly Urethane (TPU) can be a high-performance alternative material for the filter plate in the solid-liquid separation module of the dehydration process. Hence, to predict and evaluate the TPU for structural stability in the filter plate through analytical techniques designed and experimental verification is essential. As a result, TPU filter plate had maximum strain of 27.85 MPa at 20 bar pressure condition. This result is less than TPU stress-strain limit, which ensures the structural stability of the TPU material.

Fluid/Particulate Heat Transfer Coefficient in a Continuous Flow Cooking System (연속살균장치에서의 액상/고상 식품간의 대류열전달계수 예측)

  • Choe, J.S.;Hong, J.H.;Koh, H.K.
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2004
  • 우리가 소비하는 가공 식품은 위생상 안전하도록 살균처리가 이루어진다. 식품 내에 존재할 수 있는 유해 세균은 일정 살균온도에서 살균에 필요한 시간 동안 노출되면 사멸하며, 일반적으로 살균온도가 높을수록 살균에 필요한 시간은 단축된다. 연속살균장치는 혼합 및 저장탱크에 담겨진 식품을 점프로 이동시키면서 가열 열교환기에서 살균온도로 가열하고 단열관을 거치는 동안 살균온도를 유지시켜 살균을 완료한다. 또한 살균된 식품은 냉각용 열교환기에서 상온으로 냉각되며 이 과정에서 회수되는 열은 저장탱크에서 유입되는 식품의 예열에 사용되어 에너지 효율을 제고하는데 사용되기도 한다. 이와 같이 관을 이동하면서 가열되는 살균장치는 기존의 배치식 살균방법에 비하여 균일하게 가열이 이루어지므로 130C의 고온으로 살균할 수 있어서 살균에 필요한 시간을 수초에서 수십초 정도로 단축시킬 수가 있고 그에 따라 열손상을 크게 줄일 수 있다. 또한, 상온으로 냉각된 식품을 포장함으로써 저렴한 가격의 포장용기를 사용할 수 있고 상온에서 저장할 수 있으므로 저장비용이 저렴한 장점이 있다. 그러나, 가공식품에 고기나 야채와 같은 고체 상태의 식품이 함유된 경우에는 액상 식품이 열 교환기에서 순간 가열되며, 고상 식품은 액상식품과의 대류에 의한 열전달로 가열된다. 이 과정에서 고상식품은 이동관 내벽이나 다른 고상식품과 부딪치거나 회전하면서 이동관 내부에서 자유롭게 운동하게 된다. 이 과정에서 액상식품과의 상대이동 속도가 발생하여 이것이 대류열전달에 영향을 미치게 된다. 이 상대이동속도에 따른 대류 열전달계수는 고상식품의 내부온도 결정에 사용되는 연속살균장치의 중요한 설계인자이다. 대류열전달계수는 연속살균장치에서 자유로이 이동하는 고상식품의 중심부의 온도를 측정하여 결정할 수 있으나 이는 현실적으로 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 고정된 고상식품에 액상식품을 이동시켜 상대속도를 재현하고 액상식품의 온도와 고상식품의 중심온도를 측정하는 장치를 개발하였으며, 각 상대속도와 액상식품의 점도 별 대류열전달계수를 결정하는 프로그램을 유한차분법을 이용하여 개발하였다. 이 장치를 분당 15, 30, 40 리터의 유량에서 유체의 점도를 0에서 15 centipoise 사이의 세 수준에서 정육면체 소고기를 모델 고상식품으로 내부 온도분포를 측정하였으며, 유한차분법 프로그램으로 대류열전달계수를 결정하였다. 대류열전달계수는 792에서 2,107 W/m$^2$로 분석되었다. 대류열전달 계수는 액상식품과의 상대속도가 증가함에 따라서 증가하였고, 점도가 증가함에 따라서는 감소하였다.

The Effect of Prior Price Trends on Optimistic Forecasting (이전 가격 트렌드가 낙관적 예측에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Young-Doo
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.10
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    • pp.83-89
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study examines when the optimism impact on financial asset price forecasting and the boundary condition of optimism in the financial asset price forecasting. People generally tend to optimistically forecast their future. Optimism is a nature of human beings and optimistic forecasting observed in daily life. But is it always observed in financial asset price forecasting? In this study, two factors were focused on considering whether the optimism that people have applied to predicting future performance of financial investment products (e.g., mutual fund). First, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied depending on the direction of the prior price trend. Second, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied according to the forecast period by dividing the future forecasted by people into three time horizon based on forecast period. Research design, data, and methodology - 2 (prior price trend: rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) × 3 (forecast time horizon: short term vs medium term vs long term) experimental design was used. Prior price trend was used between subject and forecast time horizon was used within subject design. 169 undergraduate students participated in the experiment. χ2 analysis was used. In this study, prior price trend divided into two types: rising-up trend versus falling-down trend. Forecast time horizon divided into three types: short term (after one month), medium term (after one year), and long term (after five years). Results - Optimistic price forecasting and boundary condition was found. Participants who were exposed to falling-down trend did not make optimistic predictions in the short term, but over time they tended to be more optimistic about the future in the medium term and long term. However, participants who were exposed to rising-up trend were over-optimistic in the short term, but over time, less optimistic in the medium and long term. Optimistic price forecasting was found when participants forecasted in the long term. Exposure to prior price trends (rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) was a boundary condition of optimistic price forecasting. Conclusions - The results indicated that individuals were more likely to be impacted by prior price tends in the short term time horizon, while being optimistic in the long term time horizon.

A Study on Predicting Cryptocurrency Distribution Prices Using Machine Learning Techniques (머신러닝 기법을 활용한 암호화폐 유통 가격 예측 연구)

  • KIM, Han-Min;KIM, Hoik
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: Blockchain technology suggests ways to solve the problems in the existing industry. Among them, Cryptocurrency system, which is an element of Blockchain technology, is a very important factor for operating Blockchain. While Blockchain cryptocurrency has attracted attention, studies on cryptocurrency prices have been mainly conducted, however previous studies mainly conducted on Bitcoin prices. On the other hand, in the context of the creation and trading of various cryptocurrencies based on the Blockchain system, little research has been done on cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. Hence, this study attempts to find variables related to the prices of Dash, Litecoin, and Monero cryptocurrencies using machine learning techniques. We also attempt to find differences in the variables related to the prices for each cryptocurrencies and to examine machine learning techniques that can provide better performance. Research design, data, and methodology: This study performed Dash, Litecoin, and Monero price prediction analysis of cryptocurrency using Blockchain information and machine learning techniques. We employed number of transactions in Blockchain, amount of generated cryptocurrency, transaction fees, number of activity accounts in Blockchain, Block creation difficulty, block size, umber of created blocks as independent variables. This study tried to ensure the reliability of the analysis results through 10-fold cross validation. Blockchain information was hierarchically added for price prediction, and the analysis result was measured as RMSE and MAPE. Results: The analysis shows that the prices of Dash, Litecoin and Monero cryptocurrency are related to Blockchain information. Also, we found that different Blockchain information improves the analysis results for each cryptocurrency. In addition, this study found that the neural network machine learning technique provides better analysis results than support-vector machine in predicting cryptocurrency prices. Conclusion: This study concludes that the information of Blockchain should be considered for the prediction of the price of Dash, Litecoin, and Monero cryptocurrency. It also suggests that Blockchain information related to the price of cryptocurrency differs depending on the type of cryptocurrency. We suggest that future research on various types of cryptocurrencies is needed. The findings of this study can provide a theoretical basis for future cryptocurrency research in distribution management.

A Study on the issues and measures of the China's Anti-dumping law (중국의 반덤핑 제도 과제와 대응방안)

  • Oh, Moon-Kap
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.117-142
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    • 2014
  • China having largest market in the world, has been criticized by its trading partner countries due to its unfair trade practices, particularly in the field of anti-dumping regulation. The main reasons for such criticism seem to come from the incomplete anti-dumping law as instrument to protect the industry concerned. In 2001, though new anti-dumping law was established to replace the former one by revising it to meet the needs for economic development which should be secured for china to take part in the competition world as the new member of WTO. The provisions concerned have been evaluated not to be sufficient and efficient from the viewpoint of the safeguard mechanism, while are required to be modified to meet the real world of international trade law. I consider that as the biggest partner of chinese trade activity, we will need to maintain a well understanding of the Chinese anti-dumping regulations. So this report conducts the Chinese anti-dumping regulations, compares between the chinese regulations and the WTO agreement, and studies deeply in to the problems and the improvements of the Chinese anti-dumping regulations.

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A Study on a Performance Analysis of Direct-Conversion Receiver Using AC-Coupling Method in Additive White Gaussian Noise Channel Environment (AWGN 채널환경에서 AC-Coupling기법을 이용한 Direct-Conversion 수신기의 성능분석에 관한 연구)

  • 박성진;김칠성;성태경;조형래
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2000.05a
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    • pp.205-209
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    • 2000
  • Modem wireless communication equipments provides various multimedia and aims at the development of low-power, minimum size and weight, and low-cost implimentations. Because of the heterodyne architecture which was invented many decades ago in the wireless communication system using too many components, it was difficult to make it small, compact and On-Chip so it does not proper for future communication. That gives rise a new developing architecture, so called, Direct Conversion. Because The Direct Conversion down-converts the wireless frequency band to baseband directly, it does not need using additive components and has a merit of reduction in power dissipation. We describes the Direct Conversion architecture and DC-Offset, which must be solved, theorectically and predicts system performance enhancement when adopt the AC-Coupling method.

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A Study on the Price Fluctuation and Forecasting of Aquacultural Flatfish in Korea (양식 넙치의 가격변동 및 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ock, Young-Soo;Kim, Sang-Tea;Ko, Bong-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Fisheries Business Administration Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2007.06a
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    • pp.19-41
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    • 2007
  • In Side of Supply and Demand of Fisheries Products, The Aquacultural Industry stayed in subsidized situation for the whole fishery industry of korea when it's dawned. But nowaday, the Aquacultural Industry has been developed to unique industry itself, and it could be said the Hoe - korean style Sashimi or Sushi culture of korea can't exist without its aquacultural industry. So it could be said that the Aquacultural industry is not only a part of the fishery industry but also inevitable unique industry. The main objective of this paper is to analysis the present situation for production of Flatfish, distribution of Flatfish, and consumption structure of Flatfish. Especially, the production for aquacultural Flatfish in 2005 has been raised over 38 times against the production in 1990, and it takes the status as the major fish which leads the domestic aqua cultural industry compare with others. The distribution of Flatfish can be divided to the domestic and export mainly. In field of its domestic distribution, Flatfish is the major item with Rockfish, and the deal of its over 90% happens in Similarity Fishery Wholesale Markets such as In-chon, Ha-nam, and Bu-san Fishery Wholesale Market not in the common distribution process of the fishery products. At present, the exporting of Flatfish take 13.9% among the whole Aquacultural Industry of korea, and Flatfish mainly export to Japan. Also, through the development of chinese economy, Hoe consumption culture is expanded gradually. And the future of exporting Flatfish is very bright because of developing of the U.S. market. The brief introduction of the consumption style of live fish is as belows. According to the research, generally the most of korean consumers prefer individual item as their food to combination style in korean Hoe consumption culture and the favorite item of korean consumers are Flatfish and Rockfish.

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