• Title/Summary/Keyword: $G^E$ models

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Evaluation of a Solar Flare Forecast Model with Value Score

  • Park, Jongyeob;Moon, Yong-Jae;Lee, Kangjin;Lee, Jaejin
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.80.1-80.1
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    • 2016
  • There are probabilistic forecast models for solar flare occurrence, which can be evaluated by various skill scores (e.g. accuracy, critical success index, heidek skill score, and true skill score). Since these skill scores assume that two types of forecast errors (i.e. false alarm and miss) are equal or constant, which does not take into account different situations of users, they may be unrealistic. In this study, we make an evaluation of a probabilistic flare forecast model [Lee et al., 2012] which use sunspot groups and its area changes as a proxy of flux emergence. We calculate daily solar flare probabilities from 2011 to 2014 using this model. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of forecast probability, which corresponds to the maximum skill score depending on flare class and type of a skill score. We use a value score with cost/loss ratio, relative importance between the two types of forecast errors. The forecast probability (y) is linearly changed with the cost/loss ratio (x) in the form of y=ax+b: a=0.88; b=0 (C), a=1.2; b=-0.05(M), a=1.29; b=-0.02(X). We find that the forecast model has an effective range of cost/loss ratio for each class flare: 0.536-0.853(C), 0.147-0.334(M), and 0.023-0.072(X). We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine the probability threshold and the cost/loss ratio for space weather forecast.

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Association of Thigh Muscle Mass with Insulin Resistance and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Japanese Americans

  • Han, Seung Jin;Boyko, Edward J.;Kim, Soo-Kyung;Fujimoto, Wilfred Y.;Kahn, Steven E.;Leonetti, Donna L.
    • Diabetes and Metabolism Journal
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.488-495
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    • 2018
  • Background: Skeletal muscle plays a major role in glucose metabolism. We investigated the association between thigh muscle mass, insulin resistance, and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk. In addition, we examined the role of body mass index (BMI) as a potential effect modifier in this association. Methods: This prospective study included 399 Japanese Americans without diabetes (mean age 51.6 years) who at baseline had an estimation of thigh muscle mass by computed tomography and at baseline and after 10 years of follow-up a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test and determination of homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). We fit regression models to examine the association between thigh muscle area and incidence of T2DM and change in HOMA-IR, both measured over 10 years. Results: Thigh muscle area was inversely associated with future HOMA-IR after adjustment for age, sex, BMI, HOMA-IR, fasting plasma glucose, total abdominal fat area, and thigh subcutaneous fat area at baseline (P=0.033). The 10-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was 22.1%. A statistically significant interaction between thigh muscle area and BMI was observed, i.e., greater thigh muscle area was associated with lower risk of incident T2DM for subjects at lower levels of BMI, but this association diminished at higher BMI levels. Conclusion: Thigh muscle mass area was inversely associated with future insulin resistance. Greater thigh muscle area predicts a lower risk of incident T2DM for leaner Japanese Americans.

Development of Highly Sensitive Analytical Method for Evaluation of Evening Primrose Oil's Enhancing Effect in Prostaglandin E1(OP 1206) Biosynthesis

  • Lee, Sung-Hoon
    • Journal of People, Plants, and Environment
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.485-492
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to develop and validate highly sensitive determination method of a prostaglandin ($PGE_1$, OP 1206) in human plasma by LC-MS/MS using column switching. Plasma stored at $-30^{\circ}C$ and treated with methanol effectively inhibited interferences synthesized post-sampling. Samples were added with internal standard and were separated by reversed-phase HPLC with a cycle time of 30min. The method was selective for OP 1206 and the regression models, based on internal standard, were linear across the concentration range 0.5-50 pg/mL with the limit of quantification of 0.5 pg/mL (limit of quantitation, LOQ) for OP 1206. The calibration curve of OP 1206 standards spiked in five individual plasma samples was linear ($r^2=0.9999$). Accuracy and precision at the concentrations of 0.5, 1.5, 5.0 and 40 pg/mL, and at the lower LOQ of 0.5 pg/mL were excellent at 20%. OP120 < 6 was stable in plasma samples for at least 24 hours at room temperature, 24 hours frozen at $-70^{\circ}C$, 24 hours in an auto sampler at $6^{\circ}C$, and for two freeze/unfreezing cycles. The validated determination method successfully quantified the concentrations of OP 1206 in plasma samples from simulated administrating a single $5{\mu}g$ OP 1206 formulation. Thus, this novel LC-MS/MS technique for drug separation, detection and quantitation is expected to become the standard highly-sensitive detection method in bioanalysis and to be applied to many low dose pharmaceutical products.

Screening Methods for Anti-senescence Activity in Dermal Fibroblasts under Pyruvate-deprivation Conditions

  • Kil, In Sup;Shim, Jinsup;Cho, Gayoung;Choi, Sowoong;Son, Eui Dong;Kim, Hyoung-June
    • Korea Journal of Cosmetic Science
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2019
  • The identification of compounds with anti-senescence activity in cell culture system is a first step in aging research. Given that pyruvate can be used energy source by conversion to acetyl-CoA in mitochondria, and protects cultured cell from various stress-induced cell damage and cell death, synthetic media (e.g., DMEM) often includes 1 mM pyruvate, which is very higher than the pyruvate concentration in human blood (approximately 30 ��M). However, the use of medium containing high concentration of pyruvate is not suitable for screening anti-senescence compounds, because pyruvate also protects against the cellular senescence of primary human dermal fibroblasts (NHDFs) through NAD+ generated during conversion to lactate. In this study, four extracts, i.e., Sprouted seed and fruit complex, Poncirus trifoliata fruit extract, Jaum balancing complex, and Prunus mume extract were used for evaluation of different anti-senescence effect in the absence or presence of 0.1 mM pyruvate, similar to the physiological pyruvate concentration. The senescence in NHDFs cultured with DMEM in the presence of 0.1 mM pyruvate (approximately the physiological concentration in human blood) is accelerated, as observed in pyruvate deprivation conditions. The cytotoxicity of the Poncirus trifoliata fruit extract was protected by pyruvate, and Jaum balancing complex and Prunus mume extract had anti-senescence activity in the presence of 0.1 mM pyruvate, but not in the absence of pyruvate. Given that pyruvate is a powerful protector against both cytotoxicity and cellular senescence, the screening of candidate agents for anti-senescence in high pyruvate conditions using an in vitro cell culture system is not valid. Therefore, we recommend the use of a low concentration of pyruvate to evaluate the anti-senescence effects of candidates, which is more similar to in vivo aging conditions than excessive stress-induced senescence models, to exclude the effect of excessive pyruvate in vitro.

Modeling water supply and demand under changing climate and socio-economic growth over Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan using WEAP

  • Mehboob, Muhammad Shafqat;Panda, Manas Ranjan;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.116-116
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    • 2020
  • Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is a highly mountainous and remote region covering 45% of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) with around 1.8 million population is vulnerable to climate change and socio-economic growth makes water resources management and planning more complex. To understand the water scarcity in the region this study is carried out to project water supply and demand for agricultural and domestic sector under various climate-socio-economic scenarios in five sub catchments of GB i.e., Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok for a period of 2015 to 2050 using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. For climate change scenario ensembled mean of three global climate models (GCMs) was used under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and agricultural Land Development (LD) scenarios were combined with climate scenarios to develop climate-socio-economic scenario. Our results indicate that the climate change and socio-economic growth would create a gap between supply and demand of water in the region, with socio-economic growth (e.g. agricultural and population) as dominant external factor that would reduce food production and increase poverty level in the region. Among five catchments only Astore and Gilgit will face shortfall of water while Shyoke would face shortfall of water only under agricultural growth scenarios. We also observed that the shortfall of water in response to climate-socio-economic scenarios is totally different over two water deficient catchments due to its demography and geography. Finally, to help policy makers in developing regional water resources and management policies we classified five sub catchments of UIB according to its water deficiency level.

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AutoFe-Sel: A Meta-learning based methodology for Recommending Feature Subset Selection Algorithms

  • Irfan Khan;Xianchao Zhang;Ramesh Kumar Ayyasam;Rahman Ali
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.1773-1793
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    • 2023
  • Automated machine learning, often referred to as "AutoML," is the process of automating the time-consuming and iterative procedures that are associated with the building of machine learning models. There have been significant contributions in this area across a number of different stages of accomplishing a data-mining task, including model selection, hyper-parameter optimization, and preprocessing method selection. Among them, preprocessing method selection is a relatively new and fast growing research area. The current work is focused on the recommendation of preprocessing methods, i.e., feature subset selection (FSS) algorithms. One limitation in the existing studies regarding FSS algorithm recommendation is the use of a single learner for meta-modeling, which restricts its capabilities in the metamodeling. Moreover, the meta-modeling in the existing studies is typically based on a single group of data characterization measures (DCMs). Nonetheless, there are a number of complementary DCM groups, and their combination will allow them to leverage their diversity, resulting in improved meta-modeling. This study aims to address these limitations by proposing an architecture for preprocess method selection that uses ensemble learning for meta-modeling, namely AutoFE-Sel. To evaluate the proposed method, we performed an extensive experimental evaluation involving 8 FSS algorithms, 3 groups of DCMs, and 125 datasets. Results show that the proposed method achieves better performance compared to three baseline methods. The proposed architecture can also be easily extended to other preprocessing method selections, e.g., noise-filter selection and imbalance handling method selection.

Prediction of residual compressive strength of fly ash based concrete exposed to high temperature using GEP

  • Tran M. Tung;Duc-Hien Le;Olusola E. Babalola
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2023
  • The influence of material composition such as aggregate types, addition of supplementary cementitious materials as well as exposed temperature levels have significant impacts on concrete residual mechanical strength properties when exposed to elevated temperature. This study is based on data obtained from literature for fly ash blended concrete produced with natural and recycled concrete aggregates to efficiently develop prediction models for estimating its residual compressive strength after exposure to high temperatures. To achieve this, an extensive database that contains different mix proportions of fly ash blended concrete was gathered from published articles. The specific design variables considered were percentage replacement level of Recycled Concrete Aggregate (RCA) in the mix, fly ash content (FA), Water to Binder Ratio (W/B), and exposed Temperature level. Thereafter, a simplified mathematical equation for the prediction of concrete's residual compressive strength using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) was developed. The relative importance of each variable on the model outputs was also determined through global sensitivity analysis. The GEP model performance was validated using different statistical fitness formulas including R2, MSE, RMSE, RAE, and MAE in which high R2 values above 0.9 are obtained in both the training and validation phase. The low measured errors (e.g., mean square error and mean absolute error are in the range of 0.0160 - 0.0327 and 0.0912 - 0.1281 MPa, respectively) in the developed model also indicate high efficiency and accuracy of the model in predicting the residual compressive strength of fly ash blended concrete exposed to elevated temperatures.

A Protective Effect for Panax ginseng in the Rat Stomach

  • Omar M.E.Abdel Salam;Batran, Seham-El;Shenawy, Siham-El;Mahmoud S.Arbid
    • Journal of Ginseng Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 2001
  • The effect of ginseng on gastric ulcer and gastric acid secretion was investigated in pylorus-ligated rats. Methods: Sprague-Dawley strain rats were used after 24 hours fast. Pylorus-ligation was performed under light ether anaesthesia, then gastric mucosal damage was evoked in conscious pylorus-ligated rats by the administration of subcutaneous (s.c.) indomethancin (20mg/kg), s.c. histamine (150mg/kg) or by pylorus-ligation (Shay ulcer). Ginseng was given by intragastric (i.g.) or intraperitoneal (i.p.) route simultaneously with the ulcerogens. Rats were killed after 3h (indomethacin) and histamine models) or after 18h (Shay ulcer), when the gastric secretory responses, the number and severity of gastric mucosal lesions and mucosal mucus content deetermined. the effect of i.p. ginseng on basal gastric acid secretion and on gastric acide secretion in indomethacin (20mg/kg, s.c.)-treated rats was also investigated in urethane anesthetized rats. Gastric acid secretion was measured by flushing of the gastric lumen with saline every 15min through an oesophageal cannula. Results: In conscious pylorus-ligated rats, i.g. ginseng(12.5-50mg/$m\ell$; 50-200mg/kg) protected against gastric mucosal lesions evoked by s.c. indomethacin or s.c. histanmine in the d3-h pylorus-lighted rat, withoutmodifying gastric acid secretory responses. Ginseng given i.p. (150 or 200mg/kg) did not reduce the gastric lesions produced by histamine or by ligating the pylorus (Shay ulcer) Ginseng given orally in 50mg/$m\ell$ (200mg/kg) increased gastric mucus secretion in saline- and indomethacin-treated conscious pylorus-ligated rats. In anaesthetized rats ginseng (50 or 200mg/kg) did not modify basal gastric acid secretion or gastric acid secretion in the indomethacin-treated rats. Conclusions: ginseng given orally exerts gastroprotective effects in the rat stomach. Such anti-ulcer effect does not involve changes in gastric acid secretory responses. In addition, ginseng possesses stimulatory effect on gastric mucus secretion, which could be one mechanism by which the compound exerts its antiulcer effect. Our data are in favor for a beneficial effect for topically applied ginseng on the gastric mucosa.

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HEAT-TREATMENT OF LARGE-SCALE GLASS BACKPLANES IN A MUFFLE FURNACE (머플 가열로에서의 대면적 유리기판의 가열공정에 대한 열적 연구)

  • Kim, D.H.;Son, G.;Hur, N.;Kim, B.K.;Kim, H.J.;Park, S.H.
    • Journal of computational fluids engineering
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.16-23
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    • 2012
  • Current display manufacturing processes apply thermal treatment of glass backplanes widely for hydrogen degassing, crystallization of thin-films, tempering, forming, and precompaction. Estimation of the characteristics of transient heating stages and thermal non-uniformities on a single glass substrate or in a stack of glasses are extremely helpful to understand non-homogeneity of mechanical and electronic features of nano/micro structures of end products. Based on simple heat transfer models and using an electric muffle furnace, temperature variations in a glass stack were predicted and measured for glass backplanes of $1.5{\times}1.85m^2$ in size and 0.7 mm in thickness. Except for the period of putting glass backplanes into the furnace, thermal radiation was the major heating mechanism for the treatment and theoretical predictions agreed well to the experimental temperatures on the backplanes. Using the theoretical model, thermal fields for a glass stack of glass-size, $2.2{\times}2.5m^2$, and of the number of sheets, 1 to 12, were calculated for practical design and manufacturing of the muffle furnace for large-scale displays, e.g. up to $8^{th}$ generation.

Directed Evolution of Beta-galactosidase from Escherichia coli into Beta-glucuronidase

  • Xiong, Ai-Sheng;Peng, Ri-He;Zhuang, Jing;Liu, Jin-Ge;Xu, Fang;Cai, Bin;Guo, Zhao-Kui;Qiao, Yu-Shan;Chen, Jian-Min;Zhang, Zhen;Yao, Quan-Hong
    • BMB Reports
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.419-425
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    • 2007
  • In vitro directed evolution through DNA shuffling is a powerful molecular tool for creation of new biological phenotypes. E. coli $\beta$-galactosidase and $\beta$-glucuronidase are widely used, and their biological function, catalytic mechanism, and molecular structures are well characterized. We applied an in vitro directed evolution strategy through DNA shuffling and obtained five mutants named YG6764, YG6768, YG6769, YG6770 and YG6771 after two rounds of DNA shuffling and screening, which exhibited more $\beta$-glucuronidase activity than wild-type $\beta$-galactosidase. These variants had mutations at fourteen nucleic acid sites, resulting in changes in ten amino acids: S193N, T266A, Q267R, V411A, D448G, G466A, L527I, M543I, Q626R and Q951R. We expressed and purified those mutant proteins. Compared to the wild-type protein, five mutant proteins exhibited high $\beta$-glucuronidase activity. The comparison of molecular models of the mutated and wildtype enzymes revealed the relationship between protein function and structural modification.