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http://dx.doi.org/10.12989/eas.2016.11.5.861

On the origin of exponential growth in induced earthquakes in Groningen  

van Putten, Maurice H.P.M. (Physics and Astronomy, Sejong University)
van Putten, Anton F.P. (AnMar Research Laboratories B.V.)
van Putten, Michael J.A.M. (Clinical Neurophysiology, Medisch Spectrum Twente and University of Twente)
Publication Information
Earthquakes and Structures / v.11, no.5, 2016 , pp. 861-871 More about this Journal
Abstract
The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquake event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades essentially uncorrelated to gas production. We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event < M5 per day in 2025, pointing to increasing stress to human living conditions.
Keywords
Induced earthquakes; crack formation; statistical forecasting;
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