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http://dx.doi.org/10.7836/kses.2013.33.5.001

Variability Characteristics Analysis of the Long-term Wind and Wind Energy Using the MCP Method  

Hyun, Seung-Gun (Korea Institute of Energy Research)
Jang, Moon-Seok (Korea Institute of Energy Research)
Ko, Suk-Hwan (Korea Institute of Energy Research)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society / v.33, no.5, 2013 , pp. 1-8 More about this Journal
Abstract
Wind resource data of short-term period has to be corrected a long-term period by using MCP method that Is a statistical method to predict the long-term wind resource at target site data with a reference site data. Because the field measurement for wind assessment is limited to a short period by various constraints. In this study, 2 different MCP methods such as Linear regression and Matrix method were chosen to compare the predictive accuracy between the methods. Finally long-term wind speed, wind power density and capacity factor at the target site for 20 years were estimated for the variability of wind and wind energy. As a result, for 20 years annual average wind speed, Yellow sea off shore wind farm was estimated to have 4.29% for coefficient of variation, CV, and -9.57%~9.53% for range of variation, RV. It was predicted that the annual wind speed at Yellow sea offshore wind farm varied within ${\pm}10%$.
Keywords
Wind resource; Long-term correlation; Measure-Correlate-Predict; Coefficient of variation; Range of variation;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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