Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2017.37.2.0325

Estimation of Snow Damage and Proposal of Snow Damage Threshold based on Historical Disaster Data  

Oh, YeoungRok (Hoseo University)
Chung, Gunhui (Hoseo University)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.37, no.2, 2017 , pp. 325-331 More about this Journal
Abstract
Due to the climate change, natural disaster has been occurred more frequently and the number of snow disasters has been also increased. Therefore, many researches have been conducted to predict the amount of snow damages and to reduce snow damages. In this study, snow damages over last 21 years on the Natural Disaster Report were analyzed. As a result, Chungcheong-do, Jeolla-do, and Gangwon-do have the highest number of snow disasters. The multiple linear regression models were developed using the snow damage data of these three provinces. Daily fresh snow depth, daily maximum, minimum, and average temperatures, and relative humidity were considered as possible inputs for climate factors. Inputs for socio-economic factors were regional area, greenhouse area, farming population, and farming population over 60. Different regression models were developed based on the daily maximum snow depth. As results, the model efficiency considering all damage (including low snow depth) data was very low, however, the model only using the high snow depth (more than 25 cm) has more than 70% of fitness. It is because that, when the snow depth is high, the snow damage is mostly caused by the snow load itself. It is suggested that the 25 cm of snow depth could be used as the snow damage threshold based on this analysis.
Keywords
Snow damages; Damages estimation based on snow depth; Multiple linear regression model; Snow damage threshold;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Shim, K. O. (2005). "Analysis the Probability of the Heavy Snowfall on March 2004." Proceedings of 2005 Korean Society of Civil Engineers Conference, Korean Society of Civil Engineers (in Korean).
2 Toya, H. and Skidmore, M. (2007). "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters." Economic Letters, 94, 20-25.   DOI
3 Yu, I. S., Kim, H. Y., Imee, V. N. and Jeong, S. M. (2014). "Assessment and improvement of snow load codes and standards in Korea." Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 34, No. 5, pp. 1421-1433 (in Korean).   DOI
4 Choi,C. H., Bak, J. U., Kim, J. S., Kim, D, H. and Kim, H. S. (2016). "Development of heavy rain damage prediction function using generalized linear model." Proceedings of 2016 Korean Society of Civil Engineers Conference, Korean Society of Civil Engineers (in Korean).
5 Kwon, S. H., Kim, J. H. and Chung, G. H. (2016). "Snow damage estimation of Gangwon province damages using regression analysis." Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 437-443 (in Korean).   DOI
6 Gooch, C. A. (1999). "Heavy snow loads." Dairy Facilities/Environmental Management Engineering, Cornell University. Ithaca, NY.
7 Jung, S. H., Yoon, J. S., Lee, J. W. and Lee, H. W. (2015). "Comparison and decision of exposure coefficient for calculation of snow load on greenhouse structure." The Korean Society For Bio-Environment Control, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 226-234 (in Korean).
8 Kwon, S. H. and Chung, G. H. (2017). "Estimation of snow damages using multiple regression model - The case of gangwon province -." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 37, No. 1 (in Korean).
9 Kim, J. S., Choi, C. H., Kim, D. H., Bak, J. U. and Kim, H. S. (2016). "Development rain damage prediction functions using artificial neural networks." Proceedings of 2016 Korean Society of Civil Engineers Conference, Korean Society of Civil Engineers (in Korean).
10 Lee, Y. K., Lee, C. J. and Ahn, S. G. (2015). "Estimation of freshly fallen snow unit weight and maximum probable snow load." Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 47-55 (in Korean).
11 Rural Development Administration (RDA) (2014). Disaster type Standard Design and Specification in Horticultural Special Facility, Vol. 2014, No. 78.
12 Lee, K. M. and Lee, S. H. (2006). "The spatial distribution of snow fall and its development mechanism over the Honam area." Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, Vol. 41, No. 4, pp. 457-469 (in Korean).
13 Ministry of Public Safety and Security (MPSS) (2015). "The 2015 Annual Natural Disaster report." Ministry of Public Safety and Security (in Korean).
14 Park, S. H. (2007). Regression Analysis, The Third Edition, Minyoungsa (in Korean).