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http://dx.doi.org/10.5804/LHIJ.2021.12.4.93

Development of a Model for Calculating the Construction Duration of Urban Residential Housing Based on Multiple Regression Analysis  

Kim, Jun-Sang (인하대학교 대학원 건축공학과)
Kim, Young Suk (인하대학교 대학원 건축공학과)
Publication Information
Land and Housing Review / v.12, no.4, 2021 , pp. 93-101 More about this Journal
Abstract
As the number of small households (1 to 2 persons per household) in Korea gradually increases, so does the importance of housing supply policies for small households. In response to the increase in small households, the government has been continuously supplying urban housing for these households. Since housing for small households is a sales and rental business similar to apartments and general business facilities, it is important for the building owner to calculate the project's estimated construction duration during the planning stage. Review of literature found a model for estimating the duration of construction of large-scale buildings but not for small-scale buildings such as urban housing for small households. Therefore this study aimed to develop and verify a model for estimating construction duration for urban housing at the planning stage based on multiple regression analysis. Independent variables inputted into the estimation model were building site area, building gross floor area, number of below ground floors, number of above ground floors, number of buildings, and location. The modified coefficient of determination (Ra2) of the model was 0.547. The developed model resulted in a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 171.26 days and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 26.53%. The developed estimation model is expected to provide reliable construction duration calculations for small-scale urban residential buildings during the planning stage of a project.
Keywords
Construction Duration; Planning Stage; Multiple Regression; Urban Residential Housing;
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