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Predictive mathematical model for the growth kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes on smoked salmon  

Cho, Joon-Il (Food Microbiology Division, Food Safety Evaluation Department, National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation, Food & Drug Administration)
Lee, Soon-Ho (Food Microbiology Division, Food Safety Evaluation Department, National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation, Food & Drug Administration)
Lim, Ji-Su (Food Microbiology Division, Food Safety Evaluation Department, National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation, Food & Drug Administration)
Kwak, Hyo-Sun (Food Microbiology Division, Food Safety Evaluation Department, National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation, Food & Drug Administration)
Hwang, In-Gyun (Food Microbiology Division, Food Safety Evaluation Department, National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation, Food & Drug Administration)
Publication Information
Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety / v.26, no.2, 2011 , pp. 120-124 More about this Journal
Abstract
Predictive mathematical models were developed for predicting the kinetics of growth of Listeria monocytogenes in smoked salmon, which is the popular ready-to-eat foods in the world, as a function of temperature (4, 10, 20 and $30^{\circ}C$). At these storage temperature, the primary growth curve fit well ($r^2$=0.989~0.996) to a Gompertz equation to obtain specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT). The Polynomial model for natural logarithm transformation of the SGR and LT as a function of temperature was obtained by nonlinear regression (Prism, version 4.0, GraphPad Software). Results indicate L. monocytogenes growth was affected by temperature mainly, and SGR model equation is $365.3-31.94^*Temperature+0.6661^*Temperature^{\wedge^2}$ and LT model equation is $0.1162-0.01674^*Temperature+0.0009303^*Temperature{\wedge^2}$. As storage temperature decreased $30^{\circ}C$ to $4^{\circ}C$, SGR decreased and LT increased respectively. Polynomial model was identified as appropriate secondary model for SGR and LT on the basis of most statistical indices such as bias factor (1.01 by SGR, 1.55 by LT) and accuracy factor (1.03 by SGR, 1.58 by LT).
Keywords
Listeria monocytogenes; smoked salmon; predictive model; Gompertz model; Polynomial model;
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