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http://dx.doi.org/10.9723/jksiis.2013.18.6.095

Forecasting Unemployment Rate using Social Media Information  

Na, Jonghwa (충북대학교 정보통계학과/비즈니스데이터융합학과)
Kim, Eun-Sub (충북대학교 정보통계학과)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems / v.18, no.6, 2013 , pp. 95-101 More about this Journal
Abstract
Social media has many advantages. It can gain latest information with real time, be spread rapidly, easily be reproduced and distributed regardless of its form. These advantages can result in real time predictions using the latest information, which is possible due to the increase in social demand for more quick and accurate economic variable predictions. In this paper we adopted ARIMAX and ECM model to predict the unemployment rate and as a social information we used the Google Index provided by Google Trend. Also we used News Index as a domestic social information. The process of fitting statistical model considered in this paper can be adopted to predict various socio/economic indices as well as unemployment rate.
Keywords
Social media information; Unemployment rate prediction; Google Index; ARIMAX; ECM;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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