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http://dx.doi.org/10.9709/JKSS.2021.30.1.043

Agent-Based COVID-19 Simulation Considering Dynamic Movement: Changes of Infections According to Detect Levels  

Lee, Jongsung (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering at Korea National University of Transportation)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation / v.30, no.1, 2021 , pp. 43-54 More about this Journal
Abstract
Since COVID-19 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2, SARS-Cov-2) was first discovered at the end of 2019, it has spread rapidly around the world. This study introduces an agent-based simulation model representing COVID-19 spread in South Korea to investigate the effect of detect level (contact tracing) on the virus spread. To develop the model, related data are aggregated and probability distributions are inferred based on the data. The entire process of infection, quarantine, recovery, and death is schematically described and the interaction of people is modeled based on the traffic data. A composite logistic functions are utilized to represent the compliance of people to the government move control such as social distancing. To demonstrate to effect of detect level on the virus spread, detect level is changed from 0% to 100%. The results indicate active contact tracing inhibits the virus spread and the inhibitory effect increases geometrically as the detect level increases.
Keywords
COVID-19; Corona virus; Simulation; Contact tracing; Detect level;
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