Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2022.55.10.775

Determination of optimal order for the full-logged I-D-F polynomial equation and significance test of regression coefficients  

Park, Jin Hee (Department of Civil Engineering, Kumoh National Institute of Technology)
Lee, Jae Joon (Department of Civil Engineering, Kumoh National Institute of Technology)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.55, no.10, 2022 , pp. 775-784 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, to determine the optimal order of the full-logged I-D-F polynomial equation, which is mainly used to calculate the probable rainfall over a temporal rainfall duration, the probable rainfall was calculated and the regression coefficients of the full-logged I-D-F polynomial equation was estimated. The optimal variable of the polynomial equation for each station was selected using a stepwise selection method, and statistical significance tests were performed through ANOVA. Using these results, the statistically appropriately calculated rainfall intensity equation for each station was presented. As a result of analyzing the variable selection outputs of the full-logged I-D-F polynomial equation at 9 stations in Gyeongbuk, the 1st to 3rd order equations at 6 stations and the incomplete 3rd order at 1 station were determined as the optimal equations. Since the 1st order equation is similar to the Sherman type equation and the 2nd order one is similar to the general type equation, it was presented as a unified form of rainfall intensity equation for convenience of use by increasing the number of independent variables. Therefore, it is judged that there is no statistical problem in considering only the 3rd order polynomial regression equation for the full-logged I-D-F.
Keywords
Full-logged I-D-F polynomial equation; Optimal order; Stepwise selection; Statistical significance test;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Heo, J.H., Kim, K.D., and Han, J.H. (1999). "Derivation of rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency equation based on the approproate probability distribution." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 247-254.
2 Lee, J.J., Son, K.I., Lee, W.H., and Lee, K.C. (1981). "A study on the analysis of time-regional distribution of precipitation frequency and rainfall intensity in Korea." Journal of Korean Association of Hydrological Sciences, KWRA, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 53-72.
3 Lee, W.H., and Byeon, K.J. (1969). "Study of the rainfall intensity probability formula required for designing city sewerage and river plans." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, KSCE, Vol. 16, No. 4. pp. 1-11.
4 Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MLTMA) (2011). Study of improvement and supplement of probability rainfall.
5 National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) (2010). A study for setting urban disaster prevention performance goals in consideration of climate change.
6 Allen, D.M. (1971). The prediction sum of squares as a criterion for selecting predictor variables. Technical Report no.23, Department of Statistics, University of Kentucky, KT, U.S.
7 Jeong, J.H., Ryu, G.H., and Kim, J.C. (2017). "A practical method for derivation of 'rainfall intensity - Duration' curve." The Magazine of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 49-54.   DOI
8 Kim, T.S., Shin, J.Y., Kim, S.Y., and Heo, J.H. (2007). "Parameter estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curve using genetic algorithm (I): Comparison study of existing estimation method." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 40, No. 10, pp. 811-821.   DOI
9 Lee, W.H. (1980). "A stochastic analysis on determination of design precipitation for planning of urbanized stream & sewerage." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, KSCE, Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 81-94.
10 Lee, W.H. (1967). "A study on rainfall characteristics and determination of probability rainfall amount at various district in Korea." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, KSCE, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 28-38.
11 Lee, W.H., Park, S.D., and Choi, S.Y. (1993). "A derivation of the typical probable rainfall intensity formula in KOREA." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, KSCE, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp.115-120.
12 Ministry of Environment (ME) (2019). Standard guidelines for flood estimation.
13 Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MLTMA) (2012). Design flood calculation tips.
14 Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS) (2021). Consultation on assessment of accidental impact, etc. Practical Guidelines.
15 Park, J.H., and Lee, J.J. (2022). "Temporal distritution analysis of design rainfall by significance test of regression coefficients" Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 55, No. 4, pp. 257-266.   DOI