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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2020.53.9.647

Development and assessment of framework for selecting multi-GCMs considering Asia monsoon characteristics  

Kim, Jeong-Bae (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
Kim, Jin-Hoon (Hangang Hydro Power Site, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., LTD)
Bae, Deg-Hyo (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.53, no.9, 2020 , pp. 647-660 More about this Journal
Abstract
The objectives of this study are to develop a framework for selecting multi-GCMs considering Asia monsoon characteristics and assess it's applicability. 12 climate variables related to monsoon climates are selected for GCM selection. The framework for selecting multi-GCMs includes the evaluation matrix of GCM performance based on their capability to simulate historical climate features. The climatological patterns of 12 variables derived from individual GCM over the summer monsoon season during the past period (1976-2005) and they are compared against observations to evaluate GCM performance. For objective evaluation, a rigorous scoring rule is implemented by comparing the GCM performance based on the results of statistics between historical simulation derived from individual GCM and observations. Finally, appropriate 5 GCMs (NorESM1-M, bcc-csm1-m, CNRM-CM5, CMCC-CMS, and CanESM2) are selected in consideration of the ranking of GCM and precipitation performance of each GCM. The selected 5 GCMs are compared with the historical observations in terms of monsoon season and monthly mean to validate their applicability. The 5 GCMs well capture the observational climate characteristics of Asia for the 12 climate variables also they reduce the bias between the entire GCM simulations and the observational data. This study demonstrates that it is necessary to consider various climate variables for GCM selection and, the method introduced in this study can be used to select more reliable climate change scenarios for climate change assessment in the Asia region.
Keywords
Multi-GCM selection; Asia monsoon characteristics; GCM evaluation;
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