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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2020.53.8.605

Assessment of future stream flow and water quality of Man-gyeong river watershed based on extreme climate change scenarios and inter-basin water transfer change using SWAT  

Woo, So-Young (Graduate School of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Lee, Ji-Wan (School of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Kim, Yong-Won (Graduate School of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Kim, Seong-Joon (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.53, no.8, 2020 , pp. 605-616 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to assess the future hydrological and water quality change of Man-gyeong river basin (1,602 ㎢) based on future extreme climate change scenarios and reduction of inter-basin water transfer amount using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The SWAT was calibrated (2012~2014) and validated (2016~2018) at 2 water level observation stations (DC, JJ) and 2 water quality observation stations (SR, GJ) considering inter-basin water transfer amount, stream water withdrawal, and point source data. For the streamflow, the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.70 and the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was 0.51 respectively. For the water quality of SS, T-N, and T-P, the R2 was 0.72, 0.80 and 0.72 respectively. The future average streamflow under climate change scenarios increased up to 459 mm/yr, and average SS, T-N and T-P yields also increased up to 19,548 ton/yr, 68,748 kg/yr, and 13,728 kg/yr respectively. When the amount of inter basin water transfer decreased, the streamflow especially decreased in spring and winter periods, and the future water quality yields increased under the influence of precipitation. In order to solve the deterioration of water quality due to decrease in the flow rate and an increase in the load, the amount of inter basin water transfer should be maintained to a certain level.
Keywords
Climate change; Extreme climate change; RCP scenario; Inter-basin water transfer; Hydrological and water quality change; SWAT;
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