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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2020.53.5.323

Development of index for flood risk assessment on national scale and future outlook  

Kim, Daeho (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering., Seoul National University,)
Kim, Young-Oh (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering., Seoul National University,)
Jee, Hee Won (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering., Seoul National University,)
Kang, Tae-Ho (Institute of Construction & Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.53, no.5, 2020 , pp. 323-336 More about this Journal
Abstract
Owing to climate change, the annual precipitation in Korea has increased since the 20th century, and it is projected to continue increasing in the future. This trend of increasing precipitation will raise the possibility of floods; hence, it is necessary to establish national adaptation plans for floods, based on a reasonable flood risk assessment. Therefore, this study focuses on developing a framework that can assess the flood risk across the country, as well as computing the flood risk index (FRI). The framework, which is based on IPCC AR5, is established as a combination of three indicators: hazard, exposure, and capacity. A data-based approach was used, and the weights of each component were assigned to improve the validity of the FRI. A Spearman correlation analysis between the FRI and flood damage verified that the index was capable of assessing potential flood damage. When predicting scenarios for future assessment using the HadGEM3-RA based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the flood risk tends to be lower in the early and mid-21st century, and it becomes higher at the end of the 21st century as compared with the present.
Keywords
Climate change; Flood risk; Adaptation plan;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 9  (Citation Analysis)
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