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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2020.53.4.249

Intercomparison of uncertainty to bias correction methods and GCM selection in precipitation projections  

Song, Young Hoon (Department Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
Chung, Eun-Sung (Department Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.53, no.4, 2020 , pp. 249-258 More about this Journal
Abstract
Many climate studies have used the general circulation models (GCMs) for climate change, which can be currently available more than sixty GCMs as part of the Assessment Report (AR5). There are several types of uncertainty in climate studies using GCMs. Various studies are currently being conducted to reduce the uncertainty associated with GCMs, and the bias correction method used to reduce the difference between the simulated and the observed rainfall. Therefore, this study mainly considered climate change scenarios from nine GCMs, and then quantile mapping methods were applied to correct biases in climate change scenarios for each station during the historical period (1970-2005). Moreover, the monthly rainfall for the future period (2011-2100) is obtained from the RCP 4.5 scenario. Based on the bias-corrected rainfall, the standard deviation and the inter-quartile range (IQR) from the first to third quartiles were estimated. For 2071-2100, the uncertainty for the selection of GCMs is larger than that for the selection of bias correction methods and vice versa for 2011-2040. Therefore, this study showed that the selection of GCMs and the bias correction methods can affect the result for the future climate projection.
Keywords
General circulation model; Uncertainty; Quantile mapping; Standard deviation; Inter-quartile range;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 6  (Citation Analysis)
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