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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.7.617

Assessment of CMIP5 GCMs for future extreme drought analysis  

Hong, Hyun-Pyo (Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University)
Park, Seo-Yeon (Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University)
Kim, Tae-Woong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
Lee, Joo-Heon (Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.51, no.7, 2018 , pp. 617-627 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, CMIP5 GCMs rainfall data (2011~2099) based on RCP scenarios were used to analyze the extreme drought evaluation for the future period. For prospective drought assessment, historical observations were used based on the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) data (1976~2010) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Through the analysis of various indicators, such as average annual rainfall, rainy days, drought spell, and average drought severity was carried out for the drought evaluation of the five major river basins (Han river, Nakdong river, Geum river, Sumjin river, and Youngsan river) over the Korean peninsula. The GCMs that predicted the most severe future droughts are CMCC-CMS, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR. Moderate future droughts were predicted from HadGEM2-CC, CMCC-CM and HadGEM2-ES. GCMs with relatively weak future drought forecasts were selected as CESM1-CAM5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and CanESM2. The results of this study might be used as a fundamental data to choose a reasonable climate change scenario in future extreme drought evaluation.
Keywords
CMIP5 GCMs; RCP scenario; Extreme drought; SPI;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 6  (Citation Analysis)
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