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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.11.1031

An enhancement of GloSea5 ensemble weather forecast based on ANFIS  

Moon, Geon-Ho (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
Kim, Seon-Ho (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
Bae, Deg-Hyo (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.51, no.11, 2018 , pp. 1031-1041 More about this Journal
Abstract
ANFIS-based methodology for improving GloSea5 ensemble weather forecast is developed and evaluated in this study. The proposed method consists of two steps: pre & post processing. For ensemble prediction of GloSea5, weights are assigned to the ensemble members based on Optimal Weighting Method (OWM) in the pre-processing. Then, the bias of the results of pre-processed is corrected based on Model Output Statistics (MOS) method in the post-processing. The watershed of the Chungju multi-purpose dam in South Korea is selected as a study area. The results of evaluation indicated that the pre-processing step (CASE1), the post-processing step (CASE2), pre & post processing step (CASE3) results were significantly improved than the original GloSea5 bias correction (BC_GS5). Correction performance is better the order of CASE3, CASE1, CASE2. Also, the accuracy of pre-processing was improved during the season with high variability of precipitation. The post-processing step reduced the error that could not be smoothed by pre-processing step. It could be concluded that this methodology improved the ability of GloSea5 ensemble weather forecast by using ANFIS, especially, for the summer season with high variability of precipitation when applied both pre- and post-processing steps.
Keywords
ANFIS; GloSea5; OWM; MOS;
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