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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2017.50.8.551

A selection of optimal method for bias-correction in Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5)  

Son, Chanyoung (Hydrometeorological Cooperation Center)
Song, Junghyun (SELab)
Kim, Sejin (Hydrometeorological Cooperation Center)
Cho, Younghyun (Korea Water Resources Corporation (K-water))
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.50, no.8, 2017 , pp. 551-562 More about this Journal
Abstract
In order to utilize 6-month precipitation forecasts (6 months at maximum) of Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5), which is being provided by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) since 2014, for water resources management as well as other applications, it is needed to correct the forecast model's quantitative bias against observations. This study evaluated applicability of bias-correction skill in GloSea5 and selected an optimal method among 11 techniques that include probabilistic distribution type based, parametric, and non-parametric bias-correction to fix GloSea5's bias in precipitation forecasts. Non-parametric bias-correction provided the most similar results with observed data compared to other techniques in hindcast for the past events, yet relatively generated some discrepancies in forecast. On the contrary, parametric bias-correction produced the most reliable results in both hindcast and forecast periods. The results of this study are expected to be applicable to various applications using seasonal forecast model such as water resources operation and management, hydropower, agriculture, etc.
Keywords
GloSea5; Seasonal forecast model; Bias-correction; Quantile mapping;
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