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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2017.50.2.99

Re-evaluation of comprehensive flood management plan for the Yeongsan river basin using Robust Decision Making  

Kang, Dong-Heon (Dong Myeong Engineering Consultant)
Kim, Young-Oh (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University)
Park, Junehyeong (National Institute of Meteorological Research)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.50, no.2, 2017 , pp. 99-109 More about this Journal
Abstract
This research adopted a Robust Decision Making framework to re-evaluate four alternative strategies proposed by the Comprehensive Flood Management Plan for the Yeongsan River Basin report (MLTM, 2005) considering uncertainties of future floods under condition of climate change. To reflect the uncertainties, multiple sets of future flood scenarios were used with three uncertainty factors: the change in rainfall intensity based on the RCP climate change scenarios and the changes in the temporal and the spatial flood distributions. With combinations of these factors, 216 plausible flood scenario sets were generated and the performances of the four alternatives under different future states were evaluated. From the results, the most robust alternative among the strategies was identified. Moreover, the key factors which made the tested alternatives poor were discovered through assessment of the uncertainty factors. This information can provide detailed insights to decision makers and can be utilized to overcome alternatives' potential vulnerabilities by modifying the strategy to be more robust.
Keywords
Climate change; Robust Decision Making (RDM); Uncertainty; Comprehensive flood management; Yeongsan river basin;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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