Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.8.719

Revisiting design flood estimation of Nam River Dam basin considering climate change  

Lee, Hyunseung (Hajon Eng. & Consultants)
Lee, Taesam (Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University)
Park, Taewoong (Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University)
Son, Chanyoung (Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.49, no.8, 2016 , pp. 719-729 More about this Journal
Abstract
Extreme events of rainfall has increased mainly from climate change, resulting in more severe floods intensified by land use development. Appropriate estimation of design floods gets more attention to ensuring the safety of life and property in flood-prone areas for hydraulic structures such as dams and levees. In the current study, we reestimated the design flood of the Nam River Dam to adopt the influence of climatic change of hydrometeorological variables including recent datasets of extreme rainfall events. The climate change scenarios of extreme rainfall events in hourly scale that has been downscaled was used in analyzing the annual maximum rainfall for the weather stations in the Nam River Dam basin. The estimates of 200-year and 10,000-year return periods were calculated to provide a design flood and a probable maximum flood case for the Nam River Dam. The results present that the new estimate employing the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 downscaled data is much higher than the original design flood estimated at the dam construction stage using a 200-year return period. We can conclude that the current dam area might be highly vulnerable and need an enhancement of the dam safety regarding the reduction of damage in Sachen bay from the outflow of Nam River Dam.
Keywords
Climate Change; Design Flood; Extreme Rainfall; Nam River Dam; Streamflow;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Boo, K.O., Kwon, W.T., and Baek, H.J. (2006). "Change of extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Korea using regional projection of future climate change." Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01701, DOI : 10.1029/2005GL023 378.   DOI
2 Boo, K.O., Kwon, W.T., Oh, J.H., and Baek, H.J. (2004). "Response of global warming on regional climate change over Korea. an experiment with the MM5model." Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L21206, DOI : 10.1029/2004 GL021171.   DOI
3 Chae, S.G., Maeng, S.J., Hwang, J.H., Kim, T.W., and Kim, H.S. (2013). "Parameter estimation of unit hydrograph for derivation of probable maximum flood." Korean Review of Crisis & Emergency Management, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 147-162.
4 Collins, W.J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Hinton, T., Jones, C.D., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Totterdell, I., Woodward, S., Reichler, T., and Kim, J. (2008). Evaluation of HadGEM2 model. Hadley CentreTechnical Note 74. 44.
5 Greenwood, J.A., Landwehr, J.M., Matalas, N.C., and Wallis, J.R. (1979). "Probability weighted moments : definition and relation to parameters of several distributions expressible in inverse form." Water Resources Research, Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 1049-1054.   DOI
6 Hosking., J.R.M., and Wallis, J.R. (1990). Regional Frequency Analysis. Cambridge University press.
7 Im, E.S., and Kwon, W.T. (2007). "Characteristics of extremeclimate sequences over Korea using a regional climate change scenario." SOLA. Vol. 3, pp. 17-20.   DOI
8 Kim, B.S. (2015). The outlook of the Korean Peninsula of flood and drought risk future due to climate change. Semina of The Korean Society of Climate Change Resarch.
9 Kim, K.H. (2003). "How to against about extreme flood." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 36, No. 5, pp. 10-19.
10 Koo, G.S., Boo, K.O., and Kwon, W.T. (2009). "Projection of temperature over Korea using an MM5 regional climate simulation." Climate Research, Vol. 40, pp. 241-248.   DOI
11 K-Water. (2014). Yearbook of Nam River Management.
12 Kwon, H.H. (2009). "Development of multi-ensemble GCMs based spatio-temporal downscaling scheme for short-term prediction." k-water Conference 2009, pp. 1142-1146.
13 Lee, T., and Jeong, C. (2013). "Nonparametric statistical temporal downscaling of daily precipitation to hourly precipitation and implications for climate change scenarios." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 510, pp. 182-196.
14 Sung, J.H., Kang, H.S., Park, S.H., Jo, C.H., Bae, D.H., and Kim, Y.O. (2012). "Projection of extreme precipitation at the end of 21st century over south Korea based on representative concentration pathways (RCP)." Atmosphere. Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 221-231.
15 Maeng, S.J., Kim, H.S., Jeong, J.H., and Kim, S.W. (2014). "Analysis on hydrologic stability of agricultural reservoir according to estimation and application of probable maximum flood." Korean Review of Crisis & Emergency Management, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 105-115.
16 Ministry of Land, K-Water (2011). Report of Water Resource Development and Research in Nam River Basin.
17 Park, M.K. (2003). "Extreme storm estimation by climate change using precipitable water." Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation paper, 2013, pp. 121-127.
18 Walters, D.N., M.J. Best, A.C. Bushell, D. Copsey, J.M. Edwards, P.D. Falloon, C.M. Harris, A.P. Lock, J.C. Manners, C.J. Morcrette, M.J. Roberts, R.A. Stratton, S. Webster, J.M. Wilkinson, M.R. Willett, I.A. Boutle, P.D. Earnshaw, P.G. Hill, C. MacLachlan, G.M. Martin, W.K.D. (2011). The Met office unified model global atmosphere 3.0/ 3.1 and JULES global land 3.0/3.1 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss 4, pp. 1213-1271.   DOI
19 Yoon, Y.N., Jeong, J.J., and Ryu, J.H. (2012). Know-Howof Designing Flood, Ministry of Land.