Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.11.913

A development of multisite hourly rainfall simulation technique based on neyman-scott rectangular pulse model  

Moon, Jangwon (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Seoul)
Kim, Janggyeong (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Moon, Youngil (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Seoul)
Kwon, Hyunhan (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.49, no.11, 2016 , pp. 913-922 More about this Journal
Abstract
A long-term precipitation record is typically required for establishing the reliable water resources plan in the watershed. However, the observations in the hourly precipitation data are not always consistent and there are missing values within the time series. This study aims to develop a hourly rainfall simulator for extending rainfall data, based on the well-known Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model (NSRPM). Moreover, this study further suggests a multisite hourly rainfall simulator to better reproduce areal rainfalls for the watershed. The proposed model was validated with a network of five weather stations in the Uee-stream watershed in Seoul. The proposed model appeared a reasonable result in terms of reproducing most of the statistics (i.e. mean, variance and lag-1 autocovariance) of the rainfall time series at various aggregation levels and the spatial coherence over the weather stations.
Keywords
Hourly rainfall; Multisite model; Rectangular pulse model; Spatial coherence;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 7  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 So, B.-J., Kwon, H.-H., Kim, D., and Lee, S. O. (2015). "Modeling of daily rainfall sequence and extremes based on a semiparametric Pareto tail approach at multiple locations." J. Hydrol., Vol. 529, No. 3, pp. 1442-1450, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.08.037.   DOI
2 Vanhaute, W. J., Vandenberghe, S., Scheerlinck, K., Baets, B. D., and Verhoest, N. (2012). "Calibration of the modified Bartlett-Lewis model using global optimization techniques and alternative objective functions." Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 873-891.   DOI
3 Velghe, T., Troch, P. A., De Troch, F. P., and Van de Velde, J. (1994). "Evaluation of cluster-based rectangular pulses point process models for rainfall." Water Resour. Res., Vol. 30, No. 10, pp. 2847-2857, doi:10.1029/94WR01496.   DOI
4 Verhoest, N., Troch, P. A., and De Troch, F. P. (1997). "On the applicability of Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses models in the modeling of design storms at a point." J. Hydrol., Vol. 202, No. 1-4, pp. 108-120, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00060-7.   DOI
5 Wheater, H. S., Isham, V. S., Chandler, R. E., Onof, C. J., and Stewart, E. J. (2006). "Improved methods for national spatial-temporal rainfall and evaporation modelling for BSM." R&D Technical Report, pp. 400.
6 Zheng, X., and Katz, R. W. (2008a). "Simulation of spatial dependence in daily rainfall using multisite generators." Water Resour. Res., Vol. 44, No. 9, W09403, doi:10.1029/2007WR006399.   DOI
7 Zheng, X., and Katz, R. W. (2008b). "Mixture model of generalized chain-dependent processes and its application to simulation of interannual variability of daily rainfall." J. Hydrol., Vol. 349, No. 1-2, pp. 191-199, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.10.061.   DOI
8 Zheng, X., Renwick, J., and Clark, A. (2010). "Simulation of multisite precipitation using an extended chain-dependent process." Water Resour. Res., Vol. 46, W01504, doi:10.1029/2008WR007526.   DOI
9 Charles, S. P., Bates, B. C., and Hughes, J. P. (1999), "A spatiotemporal model for downscaling precipitation occurrence and amounts." J Geophys Res-Atmos, Vol. 104, No. D24, pp. 31657-31669.   DOI
10 Brocca, L., Liersch, S., and Melone, F. (2013). "Application of a model-based rainfall-runoff database as efficient tool for flood risk management." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 8, pp. 3159-3169.   DOI
11 Fowler, H. J., Kilsby, C. G., O'Connell, P. E., and Burton, A. (2005). "A weather-type conditioned multi-site stochastic rainfall model for the generation of scenarios of climatic variability and change." J. Hydrol., Vol. 308, No. 1-4, pp. 50-66, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.10.021.   DOI
12 Cho, H., Kim, D., Olivera, F., and Guikema, S. D. (2011). "Enhanced speciation in particle swarm optimization for multi-modal problems." Eur. J. Oper. Res., Vol. 213, No. 1, pp. 15-23, doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2011.02.026.   DOI
13 Cowpertwait, P. S. P., O'Connell, P. E., Metcalfe, A. V., and Mawdsley, J. A. (1996). "Stochastic point process modelling of rainfall I. Single-site fitting and validation." J. Hydrol., Vol. 175, No. 1, pp. 17-46, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(96)80004-7.   DOI
14 Entekhabi, D., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., and Eagleson, P. S. (1989). "Probabilistic representation of the temporal rainfall process by a modified neyman-scott rectangular pulses model: Parameter estimation and validation." Water Resour. Res., Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 295-302, doi:10.1029/WR025i002p00295.   DOI
15 Hill, R. R., Jr (1996). "Multivariate sampling with explicit correlation induction for simulation and optimization studies." Vol. 1, No. AFIT-96-003D. AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHTPATTERSONAFB OH.
16 Hughes, J. P., Guttorp, P., and Charles, S. P. (1999). "A nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model for precipitation occurrence." J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C Appl. Stat., Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 15-30, doi:10.1111/1467-9876.00136.   DOI
17 Kim, D., and Olivera, F. (2012). "Relative importance of the different rainfall statistics in the calibration of stochastic rainfall generation models." J. Hydrol. Eng., Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 368-376, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000453.   DOI
18 Kim, D., Cho, H., Onof, C., and Choi, M. (2016b). "Let-It-Rain: A web application for stochastic point rainfall generation at ungaged basins and its applicability in runoff and flood modeling." Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., pp. 1-21, doi:10.1007/s00477-016-1234-6.   DOI
19 Kim, D., Olivera, F., and Cho, H. (2013a). "Effect of the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics on stochastically generated rainfall time series: Part 1. Impact on peak and extreme rainfall values." Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., Vol. 27, No. 7, pp. 1601-1610, doi:10.1007/s00477-013-0696-z.   DOI
20 Kim, D., Olivera, F., Cho, H., and Lee, S. O. (2013b). "Effect of the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics on stochastically generated rainfall time series: Part 2. Impact on watershed response variables." Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., Vol. 27, No. 7, pp. 1611-1619, doi:10.1007/s00477-013-0697-y.   DOI
21 Kim, D., Kwon, H.-H., Lee, S.-O., and Kim, S. (2016a). "Regionalization of the modified bartlett-lewis rectangular pulse stochastic rainfall model across the korean peninsula." Journal of Hydro-environment Research, Vol. 11, pp. 123-137, doi:10.1016/j.jher.2014.10.004.   DOI
22 Kim, D., Shin, J. Y., Lee, S.-O., and Kim, T.-W. (2013c). "The application of the poisson cluster rainfall generation model to the flood analysis." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 46, No. 5, pp. 439-447, doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.5.439.   DOI
23 Khalil, A. F., Kwon, H. H., Lall, U., and Kaheil, Y. H. (2010). "Predictive downscaling based on non-homogeneous hidden Markov models." Hydrolog Sci J, Vol. 55, No. 3, pp. 333-350.   DOI
24 Boughton, W., and Droop, O. (2003). "Continuous simulation for design flood estimation-a review." Environ. Modell. Softw., Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 309-318, doi:10.1016/S1364-8152(03)00004-5.   DOI
25 Ailliot, P., Thompson, C., and Thomson, P. (2009). "Space-time modelling of precipitation by using a hidden markov model and censored gaussian distributions." J R Stat Soc C-Appl, Vol. 58, pp. 405-426.   DOI
26 Apipattanavis, S., Podesta, G., Rajagopalan, B., and Katz, R. W. (2007). "A semiparametric multivariate and multisite weather generator." Water Resour Res, Vol. 43, No. 11.
27 Bardossy, A., and Pegram, G. G. S. (2009). "Copula based multisite model for daily precipitation simulation." Hydrol Earth Syst Sc., Vol. 13, No. 12, pp. 2299-2314.   DOI
28 Kim, T.-J., Kwon, H.-H., Lee, D.-R., and Yoon, S.-K. (2014b). "Development of stochastic downscaling method for rainfall data using GCM." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 47, No. 9, pp. 825-838, doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.9.825.   DOI
29 Kim, J. G., Kwon, H. H., and Kim, D. K. (2014a). "A development of hourly rainfall simulation technique based on bayesian MBLRP model." Journal of The Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 821-831, doi:10.12652/Ksce.2014.34.3.0821.   DOI
30 Kim, K.-W., and Yoo, C.-S. (2008). "A selection of the point rainfall process model considered on temporal clustering characteristics." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 7, pp. 747-759, doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.7.747.   DOI
31 Kwon, H. H., Kim, T. J., Hwang, S.-H., and Kim, T.-W. (2013). "Development of daily rainfall simulation model based on homogeneous hidden markov Chain." Journal of The Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 33, No. 5, 1861-1870, doi:10.12652/Ksce.2013.33.5.1861.   DOI
32 Kwon, H. H., Lall, U., and Obeysekera, J. (2009). "Simulation of daily rainfall scenarios with interannual and multidecadal climate cycles for South Florida." Stoch Env Res Risk A, Vol. 23, No. 7, pp. 879-896.   DOI
33 Kyoung, M.-S., Sivakumar, B., Kim, H.-S., and Kim, B.-S. (2008). "Chaotic disaggregation of daily rainfall time series." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 9, pp. 959-967, doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.9.959.   DOI
34 Lagarias, J. C., Reeds, J. A., Wright, M. H., and Wright, P. E. (1998). "Convergence properties of the nelder-mead simplex method in low dimensions." SIAM J. Optim., Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 112-147, doi:10.1137/S1052623496303470.   DOI
35 Park, H., Yang, J., Han, J., and Kim, D. (2015). "Application of the poisson cluster rainfall generation model to the urban flood analysis." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 48, No. 9, pp. 729-741, doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.9.729.   DOI
36 Li, C., Singh, V. P., and Mishra, A. K. (2013), A bivariate mixed distribution with a heavy-tailed component and its application to single-site daily rainfall simulation, Water Resour Res, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 767-789.   DOI
37 Onof, C., Chandler, R. E., Kakou, A., Northrop, P., Wheater, H. S., and Isham, V. (2000). "Rainfall modelling using Poissoncluster processes: A review of developments." Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., Vol. 14, No. 6, pp. 384-411, doi:10.1007/s004770000043.   DOI
38 Owen, A. B. (1994), "Controlling correlations in Latin hypercube samples." Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 89, No. 428, pp. 1517-1522.   DOI
39 Rajagopalan, B., and Lall, U. (1999). "A k-nearest-neighhor simulator for daily precipitation and other weather variables." Water Resour Res, Vol. 35, No. 10, pp. 3089-3101.   DOI
40 Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Power, B. F., and Valdes, J. (1987b). "Rectangular pulses point process models for rainfall: Analysis of empirical data." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984-2012), Vol. 92, Issue D8, pp. 9645-9656.   DOI
41 Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Cox, D., and Isham, V. (1987a). "Some models for rainfall based on stochastic point processes." Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Vol. 410, Issue 1839, pp. 269-288.   DOI
42 Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Cox, D., and Isham, V. (1988). "A point process model for rainfall: further developments." Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Vol. 417, Issue 1853, pp. 283-298.   DOI