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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.10.823

A development of trivariate drought frequency analysis approach using copula function  

Kim, Jin-Young (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
So, Byung-Jin (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Kim, Tae-Woong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.49, no.10, 2016 , pp. 823-833 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study developed a trivariate Copula function based drought frequency analysis model to better evaluate the recent 2014~2015 drought event. The bivariate frequency analysis has been routinely used for the drought variables of interest (e.g. drought duration and severity). However, the recent drought patterns showed that the intensity can be regarded as an important factor which is being characterized by short duration and severe intensity. Thus, we used the trivariate Copula function approach to incorporate the trivariate drought characteristics into the drought frequency analysis. It was found that the return periods based on the trivariate frequency analysis are, in general, higher than the existing bivariate frequency analysis. In addition, this study concludes that the increase in drought frequency claimed by the Gumbel copula function has been overestimated compared to the Student t Copula function. In other words, the selection of copula functions is rather sensitive to the estimation of trivariate drought return periods at a given duration, magnitude and intensity.
Keywords
Trivariate Copula Function; Return Period; Drought; Trivariate Drought Frequency Analysis;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
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