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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.5.345

Climate Change Impact Analysis of Urban Inundation in Seoul Using High-Resolution Climate Change Scenario  

Lee, Moon-Hwan (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Sejong University)
Kim, Jae-Pyo (Water Resources Business Div., Cheil Engineering)
Bae, Deg-Hyo (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Sejong University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.48, no.5, 2015 , pp. 345-355 More about this Journal
Abstract
Climate change impact on urban drainage system are analyzed in Seoul by using high-resolution climate change scenario comparing 2000s (1971~2000) with 2020s (2011~2040), 2050s (2041~2070) and 2080s (2071~2100). The historical hourly observed rainfall data were collected from KMA and the climate change scenario-based hourly rainfall data were produced by RegCM3 and Sub-BATS scheme in this study. The spatial resolution obtained from dynamic downscaling was $5{\times}5km$. The comparison of probability rainfalls between 2000s and 2080s showed that the change rates are ranged on 28~54%. In particular, the increase rates of probability rainfall were significant on 3, 6 and 24-hour rain durations. XP-SWMM model was used for analyzing the climate change impacts on urban drainage system. As the result, due to the increase of rainfall intensities, the inundated areas as a function of number of flooded manhole and overflow amounts were increasing rapidly for the 3 future periods in the selected Gongneung 1, Seocho 2, Sinrim 4 drainage systems. It can be concluded that the current drainage systems on the selected study area are vulnerable to climate change and require some reasonable climate change adaptation strategies.
Keywords
Climate change; Seoul; Drainage system; High-resolution climate scenario;
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