Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.4.385

Assessment of Typhoon Trajectories and Synoptic Pattern Based on Probabilistic Cluster Analysis for the Typhoons Affecting the Korean Peninsula  

Kim, Tae-Jeong (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Kim, Ki-Young (Infrastructure Research Center, K-water Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.47, no.4, 2014 , pp. 385-396 More about this Journal
Abstract
Lately, more frequent typhoons cause extensive flood and wind damage throughout the summer season. In this respect, this study aims to develop a probabilistic clustering model that uses both typhoon genesis location and trajectories. The proposed model was applied to the 197 typhoon events that made landfall in the Korean peninsula from 1951 to 2012. We evaluate the performance of the proposed clustering model through a simulation study based on synthetic typhoon trajectories. The seven distinguished clusters for typhoons affecting Korean peninsula were identified. It was found that most of typhoon genesis originated from a remote position ($10^{\circ}{\sim}20^{\circ}N$, $120^{\circ}{\sim}150^{\circ}E$) near the Equator. Cluster, type B can be regarded as a major track due to the fact that its frequency is approximately about 25.4% out of 197 events and its direct association with strong positive rainfall anomalies.
Keywords
typhoon track; clustering; synoptic pattern;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 6  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Back, H.J., Kwon, W.T., and Oh, J.H. (1999) Occurred in the western North Pacific climatological characterstics of a strong typhoon. Korea Water Resources Association annual Meeting, pp. 177-182.
2 Blender, R., Fraedrich, K., and Lunkeit, F. (1997). "Identification if cyclone-track regimes in the north atlantic." Journal of The Royal Meteological Society, Vol. 123n No. 539, pp. 727-741.   DOI
3 Emanuel, K., Sundararajan, E., and Willians, J. (2008). "Hurricanes and global warming: results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations." Journal of American Meteorological Society, Vol. 89, No. 3, pp. 347-367.   DOI
4 Camargo, S.J., Robertson, A.W., Gaffney, S.J., Smyth, P., and Ghil, M. (2007). "Cluster analysis of typhoon track. Part I: General properties" Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, No. 20, pp. 3635-3653.   DOI   ScienceOn
5 Elsner, J.B. (2003). "Tracking Hurricanes." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 84, No. 3, pp. 353-356.   DOI
6 Elsner, J.B., and Liu, K.B. (2003) "Examining the ENSOtyphoon hypothesis." Journal of Climate Research, Vol. 25, pp. 43-54.   DOI   ScienceOn
7 Faraway, J., and Chatfield, C. (1998). "Time series forecasting with neural networks: a comparative study using the airline data." Journal of The Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 47, No.2 pp. 231-250.
8 Gaffney, S.J. (2004). Probabilistic curve-aligned clustering and prediction with regression mixture models. Ph. D. dissertation, University of California, Irvine, CA 281.
9 Harr, P.A., and Elsberry, R.L. (1995). "Large-scale circulation variability over the tropical western north pacific. Part I: Spatial Patterns and Tropical cyclone characteristics." Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 123, No, 5, pp. 1225-1246.   DOI
10 Jeong, D.-M., and Bae, D.-H. (2004). "Monthly dam inflow forecasts by using weather forecasting information." Journal of Korean Water Resources Association, Vol. 37, No. 6, pp. 449-460.   과학기술학회마을   DOI
11 Kim, H.-S., Kim, J.-H., Ho, C.-H., and Chu, P.-H. (2011). "Pattern classification of typhoon tracks using the fuzzy c-means clustering method." Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp.488-508.   DOI   ScienceOn
12 Kim, K.-H., Choi, W.-Y., and Oh, S.-K. (2013). "Design of summer very short-term precipitation forecasting pattern in metropolitan area using optimized RBFNNs." Journal of Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems, Vol. 23, No. 6, pp. 533-538.   과학기술학회마을   DOI
13 Oh, T.-S., and Moon, Y.-I. (2008). "Special quality analysis of extreme rainfall by typhoon." Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineer, Vol. 28, No. 5B, pp. 459-473.   과학기술학회마을
14 Kim, S.-U., and Lee, K.-S. (2008). "Regional low flow frequency analysis using bayesian multiple regression." Journal of Korean Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 3, pp. 325-340.   과학기술학회마을   DOI
15 Knutson, T.R., Mcbride, J.L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J.P., Srivastava, A.K., and Sugi, M. (2010). "Tropical cyclones and climate change." Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, pp. 157-163.   DOI
16 Korea Meteorological Administration. (2011) "Typhoon White Paper."
17 Lee, C.-R. (2001). A study on meteorological disasters in Korea. Master's thesis, University of KyungHee, Seoul, Korea.
18 Lee, J.-J., and Kwon, H.-H. (2011). "Analysis on spatiotemporal pattern and regionalization of extreme rainfall data." Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineer, Vol. 31, No. 1B, pp. 13-20.
19 Oh, T.-S., Moon, Y.-I., and Ahn, J.-H. (2007). "A study on special quality of hourly precipitation of typhoon happened in Korea." Journal of Korean Water Resources Association, Vol. 40, No. 9, pp. 709-722.   과학기술학회마을   DOI
20 Oh, T.-S., Moon, Y.-I., Chun, S.-Y., and Kwon, H.-H. (2009). "Evaluation of extreme rainfall based on typhoon using nonparametric monte carlo simulation and locally weighted polynomial regression." Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineer, Vol. 29, No. 2B, pp. 193-205.   과학기술학회마을
21 Park, J.-K., Kim, B.-S., Jung, W.-S., Kim, E.-B., and Lee, D.-G. (2006). "Change in statistical characteristics of typhoon affecting the korean peninsula." Journal of Korean Atmosphere Association, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 1-17.   과학기술학회마을
22 Scheffner, N., Borgman, L., and Mark, D. (1996). "Empirical simulation technique based storm surge frequency analyses." Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Engineer, Vol. 122, No. 2, pp. 93-101.   DOI
23 Yang, Y., and Zou, H. (2004). "Combining time series models for forecasting." Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 69-84.   DOI   ScienceOn
24 Yoo, S.-A., and Jeong, J.-S. (2000). "A study on Typhoons affect the peninsula in 2000." Korean Meteorogical Society Fall Meeting, Vol. 2000. pp. 302-304.
25 Dimego, G.J., and Bosart, L.F. (1982). "The transformation of tropical storm agens into an extratropical cyclone. Park II: Moisture, Vorticity and Kinetic Energy Budget." Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 110, No. 5, pp. 412-433.   DOI
26 Kwon, H.-H., Kim, T.-J. Hwang, S.-H., and Kim, T.-W. (2013). "Development of daily rainfall simulation model based on homogeneous hidden markov chain." Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineer, Vol. 33, No. 5, pp. 1861-1870.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
27 Lee, D.-K., Jang, D.-E., and Wee, T.-K. (1992). "Typhoon approaching Korea, 1960-1989 part I: Statistics and synoptic overview." Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 28, No 2, pp. 133-147.