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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.2.135

Future Inflow Simulation Considering the Uncertainties of TFN Model and GCMs on Chungju Dam Basin  

Park, Jiyeon (Infrastructure Safety Research Institute, KISTEC)
Kwon, Ji-Hye (Infrastructure Safety Research Institute, KISTEC)
Kim, Taereem (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei Univ.)
Heo, Jun-Haeng (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.47, no.2, 2014 , pp. 135-143 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, Chungju inflow was simulated for climate change considering the uncertainties of GCMs and a stochastic model. TFN (Transfer Function Noise) model and 4 different GCMs (CNRM, CSIRO, CONS, UKMO) based on IPCC AR4 A2 scenario were used. In order to evaluate uncertainty of TFN model, 100 cases of noises are applied to the TFN model. Thus, 400 cases of inflow results are simulated. Future inflows according to the GCMs show different rates of changes for the future 3 periods relative to the past 30-years reference period. As the results, the summer inflow shows increasing trend and the spring inflow shows decreasing trend based on AR4 A2 scenario.
Keywords
TFN (Transfer Function Noise) model; climate change; uncertainty; inflow simulation;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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