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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.6.569

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in a Mixed Forest Catchment Using Spatially Calibrated SWAT Model  

Ahn, So Ra (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University)
Park, Geun Ae (Dept. of Civil Environmental Engineering, University of Washington)
Jang, Cheol Hee (Water Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Construction Technology)
Kim, Seong Joon (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.46, no.6, 2013 , pp. 569-583 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on hydrological components in the Seolmacheon ($8.54km^2$) mixed forest catchment located in the northwest of South Korea using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. To reduce the uncertainty, the model was spatially calibrated (2007~2008) and validated (2009~2010) using daily observed streamflow, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture data. Hydrological predicted values matched well with the observed values by showing coefficient of determination ($R^2$) from 0.74 to 0.91 for streamflow, from 0.56 to 0.71 for evapotranspiration, and from 0.45 to 0.71 for soil moisture. The HadGEM3-RA future weather data of Representative Concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR5 (Assessment Report 5) were adopted for future assessment after bias correction of ground measured data. The future changes in annual temperature and precipitation showed an upward tendency from $0.9^{\circ}C$ to $4.2^{\circ}C$ and from 7.9% to 20.4% respectively. The future streamflow showed an increase from 0.6% to 15.7%, but runoff ratio showed a decrease from 3.8% to 5.4%. The future predicted evapotranspiration about precipitation increased from 4.1% to 6.8%, and the future soil moisture decreased from 4.3% to 5.5%.
Keywords
soil moisture; evapotranspiration; mixed forest; SWAT; RCP climate change scenarios;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
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