Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.5.505

Water Supply Change Outlook for Geum River Basin Considering RCP Climate Change Scenario  

No, Sun-Hee (Department of Civil Engineering, Chungnam National University)
Jung, Kwan Sue (Department of Civil Engineering, Chungnam National University)
Park, Jin Hyeog (KIWE, K-water)
Ryoo, Kyong Sik (KIWE, K-water)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.46, no.5, 2013 , pp. 505-517 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, water supply for Geum River Basin was calculated by regulating the future water supply of Dam with the future expected discharges. HadGEM2-AO, which is the climate change prediction model that KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) recently introduced was used for this study. The data of weather stations within the Geum River basin was extracted with the new Greenhouse Gas RCP scenario. The runoff of Geum river basin was simulated using the ArcSWAT for the 1988~2010 period. After validating the model, the similarity of results between simulation and observation at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was 92.25% and 95.40%, respectively, which shows a good agreement with observed data. As the result of analysis for the discharges, the discharges would increase 47.76% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 36.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Water balance analysis was conducted by the KModSim for predicting the water supply under the runoff variation. We analyzed the volume of water intake with national standard of water supply 95% by Dam Operation Manual. By the analysis under RCP4.5 scenario, $9.41m^3/s$, $24.82m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam. By the analysis under the RCP8.5 scenario, $6.48m^3/s$, $21.08m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam.
Keywords
climate change; SWAT; KModSim; discharge; GCM; RCP scenario;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 7  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Ahn, J.H., Yoo, C.S., and Yoon, Y.N. (2001). "An Analysis of Hydrologic Changes in Daechung Dam Basin using GCM Simulation Results due to Global Warming." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 335-345.   과학기술학회마을
2 Ahn, S.R., Park, G.A., Shin, Y.H., and Kim, S.J. (2009a). "Assessment of the Potential Water Supply Rate of Agricultural Irrigation Facilities Using MODSIM -For Geum River Basin-." Journal of KoreaWater Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 42, No. 10, pp. 825-843.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
3 Ahn, S.R., Park, M.J., Park, G.A., and Kim, S.J. (2009b). "Assessing Future Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Components of Gyeongancheon Watershed." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 33-50.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
4 Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S., and Williams, J.R. (1998). "Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part I : Model Development." Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 73-89.   DOI   ScienceOn
5 Bae, D.H., Jung, I.W., and Lee, B.J. (2007). "Outlook on Variation of Water Resources in Korea under SRES A2 Scenario." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 40, No. 12, pp. 921-930.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
6 Hyun, Y.K., Kim, M.J., Khan, S.Y., Kim, J.S., Cho, C.H., Baek, H.J., Lee, H.S., and Lee, J.H. (2012). "Performance Assessment and Future Prospect on Climate Model between HadGEM2-AO used for RCP Climate Change Scenarios Computation at National Institute of Meteorological Research and Model Participant in the CMIP5." Proceedings of the Spring Meeting of Korean Meteorological Society 2012, KMS, pp. 25-26.
7 Kang, D.H. (2007). An Impact assessment of climate change on water resources for the Geum River basin. M.S. dissertation, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.
8 Kang, S.U., Cheong, T.S., Hwang, M.H., and Ko, I.H. (2007). "Validations of Water Resources Planning by K-MODSIM Model." Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference 2007, KWRA, pp. 2044-2048.
9 Kim, B.S., Kim, H.S., Seoh, B.H., and Kim, N.W. (2004a). "Impact of Climate Change on Yongdam Dam Basin." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 185-193.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
10 Kim, U.T., Yoo, C.S., Lee, D.R., and Lee, J.Y. (2004b). "Effects of Climate Change on the Streamflow for the Daechung Dam Watershed." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 483-486.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
11 Korea Meteorological Administration (2011). Case Studies to Understand and take Advantage of Climate Change Scenarios.
12 Lee, G.M., Yi, J.E., Shim, S.J., and Ko, S.K. (1999). "Water Resources Evaluation using a Network Optimization Model." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 143-152.   과학기술학회마을
13 Nash, J.E., and Sutcliffe, J.V. (1970). "River Flow Forecasting through Conceptual Models Part I-A Discussion of Principles." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 282-290.   DOI   ScienceOn
14 National Institute of Meteorological Research (2011). Climate Change Scenarios Report 2011 for IPCC Assesment Report 5.
15 Park, J.H., Kwon, H.H., and No, S.H. (2011). "Outlook of Discharge for Daecheong and Yongdam Dam Watershed Using A1B Climate Change Scenario Based RCM and SWAT Model." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 44, No. 12, pp. 929-940.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
16 Lee, H.J. (a Translator) (2008). Six Degrees (the Author: Lynas M., 2008). Sejongbooks.
17 Legates, D.R., and McCabe, G.J. (1999). "Evaluating the Use of "Goodness-of-Fit" Measures in Hydrologic and Hydroclimatic Model Validation."Water Resources Research, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 233-241.   DOI   ScienceOn
18 Korea Water Resources Corporation (2008). Decision Support System, K-MODSIM Manual Ver. 1.1.
19 Korea Water Resources Corporation (2010a). A Study for the Generation of Corresponding Plan on Climate Change for Future Water Resources Management (1th).
20 Korea Water Resources Corporation (2010b). Dam Operation Manual.