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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.3.315

Identification of Uncertainty on the Reduction of Dead Storage in Soyang Dam Using Bayesian Stochastic Reliability Analysis  

Lee, Cheol-Eung (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
Kim, Sang Ug (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.46, no.3, 2013 , pp. 315-326 More about this Journal
Abstract
Despite of the importance on the maintenance of a reservoir storage, relatively few studies have addressed the stochastic reliability analysis including uncertainty on the decrease of the reservoir storage by the sedimentation. Therefore, the stochastic gamma process under the reliability framework is developed and applied to estimate the reduction of the Soyang Dam reservoir storage in this paper. Especially, in the estimation of parameters of the stochastic gamma process, the Bayesian MCMC scheme using informative prior distribution is used to incorporate a wide variety of information related with the sedimentation. The results show that the selected informative prior distribution is reasonable because the uncertainty of the posterior distribution is reduced considerably compared to that of the prior distribution. Also, the range of the expected life time of the dead storage in Soyang Dam reservoir including uncertainty is estimated from 119.3 years to 183.5 years at 5% significance level. Finally, it is suggested that the improvement of the assessment strategy in this study can provide the valuable information to the decision makers who are in charge of the maintenance of a reservoir.
Keywords
sedimentation; reliability analysis; stochastic gamma process; Bayesian MCMC; informative prior distribution;
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