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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.1.13

A Development of Regional Frequency Model Based on Hierarchical Bayesian Model  

Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Kim, Jin-Young (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Kim, Oon-Ki (Disaster & Safety Administration, Jeongeup City Hall)
Lee, Jeong-Ju (Water Resources Investigation & Planning Dept., K-water)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.46, no.1, 2013 , pp. 13-24 More about this Journal
Abstract
The main objective of this study was to develop a new regional frequency analysis model based on hierarchical Bayesian model that allows us to better estimate and quantify model parameters as well as their associated uncertainties. A Monte-carlo experiment procedure has been set up to verify the proposed regional frequency analysis. It was found that the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model based regional frequency analysis outperformed the existing L-moment based regional frequency analysis in terms of reducing biases associated with the model parameters. Especially, the bias is remarkably decreased with increasing return period. The proposed model was applied to six weather stations in Jeollabuk-do, and compared with the existing L-moment approach. This study also provided shrinkage process of the model parameters that is a typical behavior in hierarchical Bayes models. The results of case study show that the proposed model has the potential to obtain reliable estimates of the parameters and quantitatively provide their uncertainties.
Keywords
regional frequency analysis; bayesian; GEV; L-moment; maximum likelihood;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 11  (Citation Analysis)
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