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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.6.629

Hydrologic Scenarios for Sustained Drought in Han River  

Lee, Gwang-Man (Korea Water resources Corporation)
Cha, Hyung-Sun (Korea Water resources Corporation)
Lee, Seung-Yoon (Korea Water resources Corporation)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.41, no.6, 2008 , pp. 629-641 More about this Journal
Abstract
Many studies on sustained droughts have often been limited to the analysis of historic flow series. A major disadvantage in this approach can be described as the lack of long historic flow records needed to obtain a significant number of drought events for the analysis. To overcome this difficulty, one of the present study idea is to use synthetically generated hydrologic series. A methodology is presented to develop flow series based on the probabilistic analysis of the stochastic properties of the observed flows. The method can be utilized to generate a flow series of desired length so as to include many multiyear drought events within the process. In this paper, a concept of creating multiyear drought scenarios is introduced, and its development procedure is illustrated by a case study of the water supply system in Han River Basin. Also, it was found that the generated flow series can be reliably used to predict the long drought duration and sustained drought hydrologic scenarios within a given return period.
Keywords
hydrologic scenarios; sustained drought; return period; probabilistic analysis;
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