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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.1.049

At-site Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Bayesian MCMC: II. Application and Comparative Studies  

Kim, Sang-Ug (Seoul National University BK21 SIR Group, Seoul National University)
Lee, Kil-Seong (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.41, no.1, 2008 , pp. 49-63 More about this Journal
Abstract
The Bayesian MCMC(Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) and the MLE(Maximum Likelihood Estimation) methods using a quadratic approximation are applied to perform the at-site low flow frequency analysis at the 4 stage stations (Nakdong, Waegwan, Goryeonggyo, and Jindong). Using the results of two types of the estimation method, the frequency curves including uncertainty are plotted. Eight case studies using the synthetic flow data with a sample size of 100, generated from 2-parmeter Weibull distribution are performed to compare with the results of analysis using the MLE and the Bayesian MCMC. The Bayesian MCMC and the MLE are applied to 36 years of gauged data to validate the efficiency of the developed scheme. These examples illustrate the advantages of the Bayesian MCMC and the limitations of the MLE based on a quadratic approximation. From the point of view of uncertainty analysis, the Bayesian MCMC is more effective than the MLE using a quadratic approximation when the sample size is small. In particular, the Bayesian MCMC is a more attractive method than MLE based on a quadratic approximation because the sample size of low flow at the site of interest is mostly not enough to perform the low flow frequency analysis.
Keywords
Uncertainty; Bayesian MCMC; MLE using a quadratic approximation; 2-paramter Weibull distribution; synthetic flow data; gauged data; frequency curve;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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