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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.3.205

Generation of High Resolution Scenarios for Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources (II): Runoff Scenarios on Each Sub-basins  

Jung, Il-Won (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ)
Bae, Deg-Hyo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ)
Im, Eun-Soon (Climate Research Lab., Meteorological Research Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.40, no.3, 2007 , pp. 205-214 More about this Journal
Abstract
The objective of this study is to generate the regional scale runoff scenarios by using IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario for analyzing the spatial variation of water resources in Korea. The PRMS model was adopted to simulate long-term stream discharge. To estimate the PRMS model parameters on each sub-basin, the streamflow data at 6 dam sites and Rosenbrock's scheme are used for model parameter calibration and those parameters are translated to ungauged catchments by regionalization method. The other 3 dam sites are selected for the verification of the adequateness of regionalized model parameters in ungagued catchments. The statistical results show that the simulated flows by using regionalized parameters well agree with observed ones. The generated runoff scenarios by climate change are compared with observed data on 4 dam sites for the reference period. The consequences show that the selection of climate station for generating climate scenario affects the reliability of climate scenario at sub-basin. The comparison results of the stream flows between the 30-year baseline period (1971-2000) and future 90-year (2001-2030, 2031-2060, 2061-2090) show that the long-term mean annual runoff in the Han River has increasing trend, while the Nakdong, the Gum, the Youngsan and the Sumjin Rivers have decreasing trend.
Keywords
Climate change; Regional scale; Water resources; A2 scenario; PRMS;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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