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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.1.039

Modeling of Rate-of-Occurrence-of-Failure According to the Failure Data Type of Water Distribution Cast Iron Pipes and Estimation of Optimal Replacement Time Using the Modified Time Scale  

Park, Su-Wan (Dept. of Civil Eng., Pusan National Univ.)
Jun, Hwan-Don (BK21 Initiative for Global Leaders in Construction Engineering, Korea University)
Kim, Jung-Wook (Dept. of Civil Eng., Pusan National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.40, no.1, 2007 , pp. 39-50 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper presents applications of the log-linear ROCOF(rate-of-occurrence-of-failure) and the Weibull ROCOF to model the failure rate of individual cast iron pipes in a water distribution system and provides a method of estimating the economically optimal replacement time of the pipes using the 'modified time-scale'. The performance of the two ROCOFs is examined using the maximized log-likelihood estimates of the ROCOFs for the two types of failure data: 'failure-time data' and 'failure-number data'. The optimal replacement time equations for the two models are developed by applying the 'modified time-scale' to ensure the numerical convergence of the estimated values of the model parameters. The methodology is applied to the case study water distribution cast iron pipes and it is found that the log-linear ROCOF has better modeling capability than the Weibull ROCOF when the 'failure-time data' is used. Furthermore, the 'failure-time data' is determined to be more appropriate for both ROCOFs compared to the 'failure-number data' in terms of the ROCOF modeling performances for the water mains under study, implying that recording each failure time results in better modeling of the failure rate than recording failure numbers in some time intervals.
Keywords
water main; failure data; log-linear ROCOF; Weibull ROCOF; optimal replacement time;
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