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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2006.39.5.467

An Evaluation Method of Water Supply Reliability for a Dam by Firm Yield Analysis  

Lee, Sang-Ho (Construction Division, Pukyong National Univ.)
Kang, Tae-Uk (Dept. of Civil Engrg., Pukyong National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.39, no.5, 2006 , pp. 467-478 More about this Journal
Abstract
Water supply reliability for a dam is defined with a concept of probabilistic reliability. An evaluation procedure of the water supply reliability is shown with an analysis of long term firm yield reliability. The water supply reliabilities of Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam were evaluated. To evaluate the water supply reliability, forty one sets of monthly runoff series were generated by SAMS-2000. HEC-5 model was applied to the reservoir simulation to compute the firm yield from a monthly data of time series. The water supply reliability of the firm yield from the design runoff data of Soyanggang Dam is evaluated by 80.5 % for a planning period of 50 years. The water supply reliability of the firm yield from the historic runoff after the dam construction is evaluated by 53.7 %. The firm yield from the design runoff is 1.491 billion $m^3$/yr and the firm yield from the historic runoff is 1.585 billion $m^3$/yr. If the target draft Is 1.585 billion $m^3$/yr, additional water of 0.094 billion $m^3$ could be supplied every year with its risk. From the similar procedures, the firm yield from the design runoff of Chungju Dam is evaluated 3.377 billion $m^3$/yr and the firm yield from the historic runoff is 2.960 billion $m^3$/yr. If the target draft is 3.377 billion $m^3$/yr, water supply insufficiency occurs for all the sets of time series generated. It may result from overestimation of the spring runoff used for design. The procedure shown can be a more objective method to evaluate water supply reliability of a dam.
Keywords
water supply reliability; firm yield; HEC-5 model; SAMS-2000;
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