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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2006.39.3.275

Probabilistic Medium- and Long-Term Reservoir Inflow Forecasts (II) Use of GDAPS for Ensemble Reservoir Inflow Forecasts  

Kim, Jin-Hoon (Graduate Student, Dept. of Civil & Envirn. Engrg., Sejong University)
Bae, Deg-Hyo (Water Resources Institute, Dept. of Civil & Envirn. Engrg., Sejong University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.39, no.3, 2006 , pp. 275-288 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study develops ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) system by using medium-term numerical weather prediction model which is GDAPS(T213) of KMA. The developed system forecasts medium- and long-range exceedance Probability for streamflow and RPSS evaluation scheme is used to analyze the accuracy of probability forecasts. It can be seen that the daily probability forecast results contain high uncertainties. A sensitivity analysis with respect to forecast time resolution shows that uncertainties decrease and accuracy generally improves as the forecast time step increase. Weekly ESP results by using the GDAPS output with a lead time of up to 28 days are more accurately predicted than traditional ESP results because conditional probabilities are stably distributed and uncertainties can be reduced. Therefore, it can be concluded that the developed system will be useful tool for medium- and long-term reservoir inflow forecasts in order to manage water resources.
Keywords
ESP; reservoir inflow; medium- and long-term; probability forecast; GDAPS;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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