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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2004.37.3.173

Uncertainty Analysis of GCM Information in Korea Using Probabilistic Diagnostics  

Jeong, Chang-Sam (연세대학교 토목공학과)
Heo, Jun-Haeng (연세대학교 사회환경시스템공학부)
Bae, Deg-Hyo (세종대학교 토목환경공학과)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.37, no.3, 2004 , pp. 173-184 More about this Journal
Abstract
The objective of this study is to examine the usefulness of climate model simulations (GCM) in Korea water resource management. The methods are based on probabilistic measures of the effectiveness of GCM simulations of an indicator variable for discriminating high versus low regional observations of a target variable. The formulation uses the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between two variables. AMIP-II(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-II) type GCM simulation done by ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) was used for indicator variable and observed mean average precipitation(MAP) values on 7 major river basins were used as target variable. Monte Carlo simulation is used to establish the significance of the estimator values. The results show that GCM simulations done by ECMWF are skillful in discriminating the high from the low of the observed MAP for wet season in all seven basins of Korea, but not enough for dry season.
Keywords
GCM simulation; indicator variable; target variable; K-S test;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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