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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2002.35.5.583

A Study on the Hydrologic Decision-Making for Drought Management : 1. An Analysis on the Stochastic Behavior of PDSI using markov chain  

Kang, In-Joo (㈜대경 ENC)
Yoon, Yong-Nam (고려대학교 토목환경공학과)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.35, no.5, 2002 , pp. 583-595 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purposes of this study are to perform the management and monitoring of droughts for Mokpo area via the monthly Palmer index(PDSI), the data is obtained from the Mokpo meteorological station, and the used data are in the period of 1906 to 1999. Monthly Palmer index is classified into 7 stochastic classes and its dynamic change of monthly transition probability estimated by Markov chain is investigated. We also estimate the steady state probability of the classified PDSI. The 4th class shows the highest frequency of 49.6% out of 7 classes and the 7th class which is the most extreme drought show that a stochastic transition probability is more or less larger than an empirical one. Also, we found that the monthly steady state probability could be used for the forecasting of changing pattern of drought magnitude for the study area.
Keywords
PDSI; drought; markov chain;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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