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http://dx.doi.org/10.11001/jksww.2018.32.3.221

Estimations of flow rate and pollutant loading changes of the Yo-Cheon basin under AR5 climate change scenarios using SWA  

Jang, Yujin (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungnam National University)
Park, Jongtae (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungnam National University)
Seo, Dongil (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungnam National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater / v.32, no.3, 2018 , pp. 221-233 More about this Journal
Abstract
Two climate change scenarios, the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), were applied in the Yocheon basin area using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to estimate changes in flow rates and pollutant loadings in the future. Field stream flow rate data in Songdong station and water quality data in Yocheon-1 station between 2013~2015 were used for model calibration. While $R^2$ value of flow rate calibration was 0.85 and $R^2$ value of water qualities were in the 0.12~0.43 range. The total study period was divided into 4 sub periods as 2030s (2016~2040), 2050s (2041~2070) and 2080s (2071~2100). The predicted results of flow rates and water quality concentrations were compared with results in calibrated periods, 2015s (2013~2015). In both RCP scenarios, flow rate and TSS (Total Suspended Solid) loadings were estimated to be in increasing trend while TN (Total Nitrogen) and TP (Total Phosphorus) loadings showed decreasing patterns. Also, flow rates and pollutant loadings showed larger differences between the maximum and the minimum values in RCP 4.5 than RCP 8.5 scenarios indicating more severe effect of drought and flood, respectively. Dependent on simulation period and rainfall periods in a year, flow rate, TSS, TN and TP showed different trends in each scenario. This emphasizes importance of considerations on time and space when analyzing climate change impacts of each variable under various scenarios.
Keywords
Climate change; IPCC; Nonpoint source pollutant load; RCP scenario; SWAT basin model;
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