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Development of a Probability Model for Burst Risks of Water Main using the Analysis Methods of Leakage Type  

Park, Sang-Bong (수자원기술(주))
Choi, Tae-Ho (서울시립대학교 환경공학부)
Koo, Ja-Yong (서울시립대학교 환경공학부)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater / v.25, no.2, 2011 , pp. 141-152 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, we extracted effective factors of pipe burst from the status data of water asset, operating data of pressure, volume and etc. and 7 years' pipe burst and repair records. The extracted factors were sorted by each attribution and then a statistical analysis was performed to generate a pipe burst probability function using the logistic regression model. As the result, material, diameter, length, laying year, pressure and road width affected to pipe burst significantly. Especially, in case of small diameter, laying year was most effective factor and in case of steel pipe, external loading was main cause of burst, and in case of cast iron, PE, PC, HP pipes, the deterioration of joint was main cause. The other side, as a result of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test the models are turned out significant statistically. Also the classification criteria were determined to minimize the total cost from classification errors, when the predicted probability was more than 18% this pipe could have a chance of burst.
Keywords
Water main; leakage; burst; bursting probability; logistic regression;
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