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A Statistical Methodology for Evaluating the Residual Life of Water Mains  

Park, Suwan (부산대학교 사회환경시스템공학부)
Choi, Chang Log (부산대학교 대학원 사회환경시스템공학과)
Kim, Jeong Hyun (K-water 연구원 상하수도 연구소)
Bae, Cheol Ho (K-water 연구원 상하수도 연구소)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater / v.23, no.3, 2009 , pp. 305-313 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper provides a method for evaluating a residual life of water mains using a proportional hazard model(PHM). The survival time of individual pipe is defined as the elapsed time since installation until a break rate of individual pipe exceeds the Threshold Break Rate. A break rate of an individual pipe is estimated by using the General Pipe Break Model(GPBM). In order to use the GPBM effectively, improvement of the GPBM is presented in this paper by utilizing additional break data that is the cumulative number of pipe break of 0 for the time of installation and adjusting a value of weighting factor(WF). The residual lives and hazard ratios of the case study pipes of which the cumulative number of pipe breaks is more than one is estimated by using the estimated survival function. It is found that the average residual lives of the steel and cast iron pipes are about 25.1 and 21 years, respectively. The hazard rate of the cast iron pipes is found to be higher than the steel pipes until 20 years since installation. However, the hazard rate of the cast iron pipes become lower than the hazard rates of the steel pipes after 20 years since installation.
Keywords
residual life; proportional hazards model; GPBM; threshold break rate; survival time; water main;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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