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http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2012.13.11.5163

A Study on the Model Specification for Supply-Demand Forecast of Hallabong Tangor in Korea  

Ko, Seong-Bo (Dept. of Industrial and Applied Economics in JeJu National University, Research Institute for Subtropical Agriculture and Animal Biotechnology)
Kim, Bae-Sung (Dept. of Industrial and Applied Economics in JeJu National University, Research Institute for Subtropical Agriculture and Animal Biotechnology)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society / v.13, no.11, 2012 , pp. 5163-5168 More about this Journal
Abstract
The aim of this study is to develop the supply-demand model(dynamic recursive simulation model) on the Hallabong tangor. In order to analyze the effects of alternative policy scenarios on the Hallabong tangor sector. Simulation runs were experimented for the period, 2011~2021, with three different scenarios. The major simulation results are as follows. The results of baseline show that in the year, 2021, acreage, production, price received by farm would be 2,051.5ha, 62,049.1 ton, 2,537.4 won per kg respectively. The results of scenario I (shipping control scenario) show that in the year, 2021, acreage, production, price received by farm would be 2,079.4ha, 62,984.9 ton, 2,836.3 won per kg respectively. The results of scenario II(the rate of economic growth 3.5%) show that in the year, 2021, acreage, production, price received by farm would be 2,039.5ha, 61,647.5 ton, 2,417.3 won per kg respectively. Finally, The results of scenario III(Survey of experts) show that in the year, 2021, acreage, production, price received by farm would be 2,053.7ha, 62,124.4 ton, 2,574.8 won per kg respectively. Therefore, economic recession can be a negative role in the industrial growth and price of Halabong tangor, but expansion of Hallabong tagor's export and processing can be a very positive role in the industrial growth and price of Halabong tangor.
Keywords
Hallbong Tangor; Supply-Demand Forecast; Dynamic Recursive Simulation Model;
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