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A Study on Forecast of Electric Power Generation Mix in the Competitive Electricity Market  

Hong, Jung-Suk (Dep. of Energy Studies, Ajou Univ.)
Kwak, Sang-Man (Systemix Co., Ltd)
Park, Moon-Hee (Dep. of Safety Engineering, Hoseo Univ.)
Choi, Ki-Ryun (Dep. of Energy Studies, Ajou Univ.)
Publication Information
IE interfaces / v.17, no.3, 2004 , pp. 269-281 More about this Journal
Abstract
How to maintain the optimal electric power generation mix is one of the important problems in electric power industry. The objective of this study is to develop a computer model which can be used to forecast the investment in power generation unit by the plant owners after restructuring of electric power industry. Restructuring of electric power industry will make difference in decision making process of investment in power generation unit. After Privatiazation of Power Industry, Gencos will think that profit is the most important factor among all others attracting the investment in the industry. Coal power generation is better than LNG CCGT in terms of profit. However, many studies show that LNG CCGT will be main electric power generation source because the rest of factors other than profit in LNG CCGT are superior than Coal power generation. The impacts of the various government policies can be analyzed using the computer model, thus the government can formulate effective policies for achieving the desired electric power generation mix.
Keywords
system dynamics; electric power generation mix; restructuring of electric power industry;
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