Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.18807/jsrs.2016.6.4.075

Development of a Forecast Model for Thermal Coal Price  

Kim, Young Jin (College of Business Administration of Seoul National University)
Kang, Hee Jay (College of Business Administration of Seoul National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Service Research and Studies / v.6, no.4, 2016 , pp. 75-85 More about this Journal
Abstract
Coal can be divided into thermal coal and coking coal. The price of thermal coal is basically affected by demand and supply. However, many other factors with regard to economic condition such as exchange rate, economy growth rate also make an influence on the price. This study is targeted to develop a forecast model for thermal coal price by using System Dynamics Method. System dynamics provides results that better reflect the real world by employing an inter-dependent system of variables. This study found out that 8 factors have important influence on the thermal coal price. Most of the data of the variables were acquired from the Bloomberg Database. The period extends to 2 years and 4 months, from May of 2011 to August of 2013. The causal relations among the variables were acquired by regression analysis
Keywords
thermal coal; forecast model; system dynamics; Bloomberg; causal loop;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Kwak, S. M., "Development of a System Dynamics Model for Forecasting the Automobile Market", Journal of Korean System Dynamics Research, Vol. 3, No. 1 (2002), pp. 79-104
2 Jeong, S. J., J. H. Song, K. S. Kim, and J. W. Park. "The Effect of the Carbon Tax on Steel Industry using System Dynamics", Journal of Korean System Dynamics Research, Vol. 8, No. 2 (2007) pp.115-140
3 Jung, J. H., "A System Dynamics Model for Basic Material Price and Fare Analysis and Forecasting", Journal of Korean System Dynamics Research, Vol. 10, No. 1 (2009), pp.61-76
4 Jung, J. H., "Resource Demand/Supply and Price Forecasting -A Case of Nickel-", Journal of Korean System Dynamics Research, Vol. 9, No. 1 (2008), pp.125-141
5 Analysis of Import and Export of 6 Strategic Minerals, Korea Trade Statistics Promotion Institute (2013)
6 International coal market trends and outlook, Korea Energy Economics Institute (2009)
7 Analysis of coal market structure change and response strategies, Korea Energy Economics Institute (2011)