Mortality Determinants in Colorectal Cancer Patients at Different Grades: a Prospective, Cohort Study in Iran

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is an important cause of mortality and morbidity in many communities worldwide. This population based study was conducted to assess determinants of colorectal mortality in Iranian patients. Materials and Methods: A cohort of 1,127 cases of confirmed colorectal cancer registered in a population based registry covering 10 referral hospital in Tehran, Iran, were followed for five years. Information about tumor characteristics, smoking status and family history were collected at base line and survival status were followed every six months by contacting patient or next of kin (if patients died during the follow-up). The cause of death for each case was validated by verbal autopsy and referring to patient medical records at the time of death. The data were analyzed by Stata software using univariate and multivariate analysis (Cox regression). In building the model a p value of less than 5% was considered as significant. Results: The age at diagnosis was $53.5{\pm}14$ years. Sixty one percent were male. Colorectal mortality among the patients was 96.9 person-years among men and 83 person-years among women. Seventy five percent of patients lived for 2.72 years, 50% for 5.83, and 25% for 13 years after the diagnosis of colorectal cancer. The age at diagnosis was significantly different between men and women (p<0.03). Higher tumor grade predicted higher death rate; the adjusted hazard ratios were 1.79 (95%CI, 0.88-3.61), 2.16 (95%CI, 1.07-4.37), and 3.1 (95%CI, 1.51-6.34) for grades II, III, and IV respectively when they were compared with grade I as reference. Ethnicity, marital status, family history of cancer, and smoking were related to survival with different degrees of magnitude. Conclusions: Among many factors related to survival among the colorectal patients, tumor grade and smoking showed the highest magnitudes of association.