Development of Greenhouse Gas Estimation Method for a Local Government Level Using Traffic Demand Model

Greenhouse gas emissions have been an important issue in different countries because of their effects on global warming. The government has to organize greenhouse gas reduction measures suitable to regional characteristics by establishing annual implementation plans and comprehensive policies based on the UNFCCC. The transportation sector is one of the major contributors of air pollution; hence increasing need to estimate current and future traffic emissions precisely. Under these circumstances, a number of emission models have been developed recently. However, current methods of estimation cannot carry out effective analyses because it does not reflect vehicle movement characteristics. This study aims to present a new method for calculating road traffic emissions in Goyang city. A travel demand model is utilized to carry out GHG emission estimates according the traffic data (fleet composition, vehicle kilometers travelled, traffic intensity, road type, emission factors and speed). This study evaluates two approaches to estimate the road traffic emissions in Goyang City: Pollution-Emis and the Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA v.3.1) which is representative of the "average speed" and the "traffic situation" model types. The evaluation of results shows that the proposed emission estimation method may be a good practice if vigilant implementation of model inputs is observed.

현재 온실가스 배출량 산정 방법은 온실가스 저감대책 효과 분석이 불가능하며 차량의 이동특성이 반영이 안 된 실정으로 이를 극복할 수 있는 온실가스 배출량 산정 방법의 필요로 본 연구가 시작되었다. 교통수요 분석을 통해 차종, 교통상황에 따른 HBEFA 배출계수로 배출량을 산정하는 방법을 통해 고양시에 적용하여 분석하였다. 본연구의 지자체단위 교통수요 추정방안을 통해 실질적인 교통 이용특성에 맞는 온실가스 배출량이 산출되었다. 온실가스 지자체별 통행요금, 속도제한 등 온실가스 저감 요인들이 교통수요 모형에 반영되어 온실가스 저감 대책에 대한 효과분석 후 환경영향을 줄일 수 있는 방안을 강구하여 온실가스 저감 대책 마련에 효율적으로 이용될 것으로 판단된다.