Machine Learning Approach to the Effects of the Superstore Mandatory Closing Regulation

Purpose - This paper is aimed to analyze the effects of the mandatory closing regulation targeting large retailers, which has been implemented since 2012 to protect small retailers. We examine the changes in consumers' choice of retailers and their purchasing patterns of agri-food following the implementation of such regulation. Research design, data, and methodology - Household spending patterns were identified through the historical data of household food purchase, consumer panel provided by the Rural Development Administration. Clustering was employed to determine the household spending patterns. Moreover, the different household spending patterns before and after the regulation were comparatively studied. The patterns of consumers' choice of retail stores and shopping baskets by the type of retailers, derived from the respective datasets before and after the regulation, were compared to analyze the effects of the regulation. Results -After the regulation, some consumers who used to shop at large retailers before the regulation changed their shopping places to small retailers. However, the product categories that consumers had mainly purchased before the regulation were rarely changed even after the regulation. Conclusions - Although the regulation helped migrate some of the consumers to small retailers, the regulation seemed to have failed to stimulate consumers to purchase the goods, normally bought at large retailers, from traditional markets. In other words, traditional markets are not effective substitutes for regulation-affected retailers.