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http://dx.doi.org/10.17820/eri.2020.7.4.345

Forecasting Technique of Downstream Water Level using the Observed Water Level of Upper Stream  

Kim, Sang Mun (Safety & Disaster Management)
Choi, Byungwoong (Research Team on Ecological and Natural Map, National Institute of Ecology)
Lee, Namjoo (Department of Civil Engineering, Kyungsung University)
Publication Information
Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure / v.7, no.4, 2020 , pp. 345-352 More about this Journal
Abstract
Securing the lead time for evacuation is crucial to minimize flood damage. In this study, downstream water levels for heavy rainfall were predicted using measured water level observation data. Multiple regression analysis and artificial neural networks were applied to the Seom River experimental watershed to predict the water level. Water level observation data for the Seom River experimental watershed from 2002 to 2010 were used to perform the multiple regression analysis and to train the artificial neural networks. The water level was predicted using the trained model. The simulation results for the coefficients of determination of the artificial neural network level prediction ranged from 0.991 to 0.999, while those of the multiple regression analysis ranged from 0.945 to 0.990. The water level prediction model developed using an artificial neural network was better than the multiple-regression analysis model. This technique for forecasting downstream water levels is expected to contribute toward flooding warning systems that secure the lead time for streams.
Keywords
Artificial Neural Network; Flood Warning; Lead Time; Multiple Regression Analysis; Water Level Forecast;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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