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http://dx.doi.org/10.5656/KSAE.2013.11.0.076

Models of Forecasting the Generation Peak Time of Scirtothrips dorsalis (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) adults Based on Degree-days on Jeju Island, Korea  

Hwang, Rok Yeon (Citrus Research Station, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal science, Rural Development Administration)
Hyun, Jae wook (Citrus Research Station, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal science, Rural Development Administration)
Kim, Dong-Soon (Faculty of Bioscience and Industry, College of Applied Life Science, SARI, Jeju Nat'l. Univ.)
Publication Information
Korean journal of applied entomology / v.52, no.4, 2013 , pp. 415-425 More about this Journal
Abstract
The yellow tea thrips, Scirtothrips dorsalis (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), has been regarded as a minor pest on citrus on Jeju Island. However, the damage of yellow tea thrips has gradually increased since 2007. This study was conducted to develop a forecasting model for generation peak time of S. dorsalis by using degree-days. Simple linear regression analysis was applied to determine the relationship between the generation number (x, dependent variable) and degree-days (y, independent variable). As a result, two regression models were established: citrus-based model (y = 310.9x + 69.0, $r^2$=0.99) and green tea-based model (y = 285.7x + 84.1, $r^2$=0.99). The models was fitted by independent data sets obtained from 2013 and evaluated using the technique of RSS (residual sum of square) and ${\chi}^2$-test. The green tea based-model showed a good fitting ability. The discrepancy between model outputs and actual data, and the practical application of models were discussed.
Keywords
Scirtothrips dorsalis; Citrus; Green tea; Degree-days; Forecasting model; RSS (residual sum of square);
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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