Validation on Residual Variation and Covariance Matrix of USSTRATCOM Two Line Element

Satellite operating agencies are constantly monitoring conjunctions between satellites and space objects. Two line element (TLE) data, published by the Joint Space Operations Center of the United States Strategic Command, are available as raw data for a preliminary analysis of initial conjunction with a space object without any orbital information. However, there exist several sorts of uncertainties in the TLE data. In this paper, we suggest and analyze a method for estimating the uncertainties in the TLE data through mean, standard deviation of state vector residuals and covariance matrix. Also the estimation results are compared with actual results of orbit determination to validate the estimation method. Characteristics of the state vector residuals depending on the orbital elements are examined by applying the analysis to several satellites in various orbits. Main source of difference between the covariance matrices are also analyzed by comparing the matrices. Particularly, for the Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite-2, we examine the characteristics of the residual variation of state vector and covariance matrix depending on the orbital elements. It is confirmed that a realistic consideration on the space situation of space objects is possible using information from the analysis of mean, standard deviation of the state vector residuals of TLE and covariance matrix.