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http://dx.doi.org/10.15207/JKCS.2022.13.05.237

Prediction on the Economic Activity Level of the Elderly in South Korea - Focusing on Machine Learning Method Combined with Forecast Combination -  

Kim, Jeong-Woo (Dept. of Economics, Gangneung Wonju National University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Convergence Society / v.13, no.5, 2022 , pp. 237-247 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study predicts the economic activity level of the elderly in Korea using various machine learning methods. While the previous studies mainly focused on testing the relationship between the economic activity level and the life satisfaction or the social security system, this study aims at the accurate prediction on the economic activity level of the elderly using various machine learning methods and the forecast combination. Dependent variables such as the activity rate, employment rate, etc and independent variables such as the income, average wage, etc compose the dataset in this study. Five different machine learning methods and two forecast combinations are applied to the given dataset. The prediction performances of the machine learning method and the forecast combination varied across the dependent variables and prediction intervals, but it was found that the forecast combination was relatively superior to other methods in terms of the stability of prediction. This study has significance in that it accurately predicted the economic activity level of the elderly and achieved the stability of the prediction, raising practicality from a policy perspective.
Keywords
Aging; Employment rate; Forecast combination; Machine learning; Pension;
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