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http://dx.doi.org/10.15207/JKCS.2022.13.02.067

The Effect Analysis of COVID-19 vaccination on social distancing  

Moon, Su Chan (Dept of Acupuncture & Moxibustion Medicine, College of Korean Medicine, Daejeon University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Convergence Society / v.13, no.2, 2022 , pp. 67-75 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to present an appropriate management plan as a supplement to the scientific evidence of the currently operated distancing system for preventing COVID-19. The currently being used mathematical models are expressed as simultaneous ordinary differential equations, there is a problem in that it is difficult to use them for the management of entry and exit of small business owners. In order to supplement this point, in this paper, a method for quantitatively expressing the risk of infection by people who gather is presented in consideration of the allowable risk given to the gathering space, the basic infection reproduction index, and the risk reduction rate due to vaccination. A simple quantitative model was developed that manages the probability of infection in a probabilistic level according to a set of visitors by considering both the degree of infection risk according to the vaccination status (non-vaccinated, primary inoculation, and complete vaccination) and the epidemic status of the virus. In a given example using the model, the risk was reduced to 55% when 20% of non-vaccinated people were converted to full vaccination. It was suggested that management in terms of quarantine can obtain a greater effect than medical treatment. Based on this, a generalized model that can be applied to various situations in consideration of the type of vaccination and the degree of occurrence of confirmed cases was also presented. This model can be used to manage the total risk of people gathered at a certain space in a real time, by calculating individual risk according to the type of vaccine, the degree of inoculation, and the lapse of time after inoculation.
Keywords
COVID-19; Vaccination; Impact Analysis; Mathematical Model; Social Distancing;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 11  (Citation Analysis)
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